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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200052 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE GFS MODEL AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
WAVE OR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE EAST AFTER
20/06Z THAT IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND ENTER INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE MODEL ALSO DEPICTS A SECOND TROUGH OR WAVE
ENTERING ALMOST THE SAME TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT LOW THAT HAD ACTED AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED AND WILL PLAY ONLY A VERY MINOR ROLE IN THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE A VERY WEAK EAST-WEST
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND IN ELIMINATING
A TROPICAL WAVE TO CROSS ON MONDAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERAL SMALL WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 700 MB APPEARS TO FLATTEN
OUT...LEAVING ONLY GOOD MOISTURE IN ITS PLACE. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHING A WEAK PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
MAXIMUM OVER 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INTERVENING
DRIER SLOT OF AIR SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE
DIMINISHES STEADILY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AS LITTLE AS 1.65 INCHES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF RIPPLES IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CREATING
MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL 20/16Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK BRIEFLY WITH VCSH LIKELY FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER 20/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AFFECT TJMZ AND
TJBQ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 20/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TOPS
LATE THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH TRADE WINDS MODERATE AT BEST AND NO STRONG STORMS
IN THE ATLANTIC EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AS THE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD SEE
NO MORE THAN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191458 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS MORNING DISSIPATED AND MOVED AWAY BY
9 AM AST...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEATING OF THE GROUND...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE... WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST NOON TODAY. NEW SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AFTER 19/17Z.
THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED
IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS. ISLANDS TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE -SHRA FROM
TIME TO TIME. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 18 KNOTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191458 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS MORNING DISSIPATED AND MOVED AWAY BY
9 AM AST...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEATING OF THE GROUND...AND IN COMBINATION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE... WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST NOON TODAY. NEW SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AFTER 19/17Z.
THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED
IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS. ISLANDS TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE -SHRA FROM
TIME TO TIME. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 18 KNOTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190955 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHWR/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190955 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
AROUND 15 MPH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ELONGATED TUTT LOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD VENTILATION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE...WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTING A TONGUE OF HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES NOW CROSSING THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECTED ACTIVE AND VERY
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 46 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY. IT IS TO
THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. NEW SHWR/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFT
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA IN MOST OF PR TERMINALS.
E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  88  79 /  70  10  20  20
STT  88  79  89  80 /  70  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190227
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...WHILE SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE ALSO CONTINUING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH
SOME LIGHTING OBSERVED. EMERGENCY MANAGERS DID REPORT SOME DAMAGE
DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN QUEBRADILLAS...MOCA... AND SAN
SEBASTIAN. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE KNOCKED DOWN. MOSTLY URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WAS REPORTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER AND JUST
EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
STRONG CONVECTION WAS JUST EAST AND WEST OF THE AXIS. NEVERTHELESS
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LASTLY PUERTO RICO. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE YET TO PASS...BUT
MOST OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE ALREADY CROSSED THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 19/18Z. THIS WILL LEAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE EASTERLY WIND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WILL
EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION TO AGAIN RE-VISIT THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO AND NOT SPARE THE CENTRAL PORTIONS EITHER. MORE
HEAVY RAIN EPISODES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN THE AREA WITH MAINLY
MINOR RIVER RISES EXPECTED AND SCATTERED AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. THE NAM5 MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WET CONDITIONS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA AND GOOD EPISODES OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENT MODELS FRAGMENT THE WAVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS BUT LEAVE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE TYPICAL AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...WX CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE FLYING AREA ON FRI. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST AND TISX BTWN
19/03-08Z. NEW SHWR/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA AT MOST OF PR TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. E TO
SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150... WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET IN
EXPOSED WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS. EVEN BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WHICH WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHELTERED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER COAMO AND VILLALBA. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES.
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PROMISE TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE. SUNDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST
DAY...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES...TJSJ AND TJPS. WIND BLO FL150
FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV FL300 AT GREATER THAN 25
KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  79  88 /  70  70  10  20
STT  78  88  80  90 /  60  70  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER COAMO AND VILLALBA. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES.
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PROMISE TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE. SUNDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST
DAY...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES...TJSJ AND TJPS. WIND BLO FL150
FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV FL300 AT GREATER THAN 25
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  60  60  10  20
STT  78  89  80  90 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER COAMO AND VILLALBA. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES.
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PROMISE TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE. SUNDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST
DAY...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES...TJSJ AND TJPS. WIND BLO FL150
FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV FL300 AT GREATER THAN 25
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  60  60  10  20
STT  78  89  80  90 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER COAMO AND VILLALBA. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES.
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PROMISE TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE. SUNDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST
DAY...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES...TJSJ AND TJPS. WIND BLO FL150
FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV FL300 AT GREATER THAN 25
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  60  60  10  20
STT  78  89  80  90 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER COAMO AND VILLALBA. REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES.
LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS PROMISE TO BRING A
GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE. SUNDAY LOOKS THE DRIEST
DAY...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR
ALMOST ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES...TJSJ AND TJPS. WIND BLO FL150
FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV FL300 AT GREATER THAN 25
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  60  60  10  20
STT  78  89  80  90 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181435 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY...HOWEVER THIS DISSIPATED BEFORE 9 AM AST. THEN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS TODAY...THEREFORE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES AND FOR W AND NW PR
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL150 FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV
FL300 AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 15-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181435 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY...HOWEVER THIS DISSIPATED BEFORE 9 AM AST. THEN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS TODAY...THEREFORE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES AND FOR W AND NW PR
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL150 FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV
FL300 AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 15-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181435 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY...HOWEVER THIS DISSIPATED BEFORE 9 AM AST. THEN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS TODAY...THEREFORE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES AND FOR W AND NW PR
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL150 FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV
FL300 AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 15-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181435 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY...HOWEVER THIS DISSIPATED BEFORE 9 AM AST. THEN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LOW LEVELS TODAY...THEREFORE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL PR MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALMOST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR ISLANDS TAF SITES AND FOR W AND NW PR
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND BLO FL150 FROM E TO SE 6-14 KTS BECOMING NW ABV
FL300 AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 15-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







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