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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 550 MB HAD
MOVED OVER MACM BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND HELPED REDUCE OR END THE
SHOWERS TODAY SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN PR
ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO OCCUR THERE SO FAR.
THIS LAYER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WESTWARD AND INCREASINGLY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THE REST OF TODAY.

REDUCED THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THOUGH THE 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE WILL HAVE WILL BE
MAINLY CONCENTRATED BELOW 850 MB AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRI/FRI NIGHT ACCORDING TO
GFS AS A WAVE BRUSHES PAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE NEXT TUE/WED AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN AIR WILL KEEP SHRA MINIMAL THRU THU...AND CAUSE
SOME FALSE CIGS AT TIST/TISX. VFR XCP PSBL MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ
THIS AFT AND THU AFT. WIND BLW FL180 E 15-25 KT STRENGTHENING
16-35 KT THU NITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN NEAR TERM BUT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BUT
GREATER CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. SMALL CRAFT FOR OFFSHORE CONTINUES
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  89 /  10  10  10  40
STT  79  89  79  90 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011622
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1222 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TUTT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION STILL AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PR BUT THE INTENSITY WAS MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS HAVE REACHED THE USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PR
BUT IN GENERAL MOST OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS
SAHARAN DUST SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THIS STABLE AIR MASS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
WHERE TSRA COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 01/18-21Z. EAST WINDS OF AROUND
20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. SCA CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WOBBLING 200 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...HOLDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT BY A WEAK TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY PULLING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA
TODAY HAVING CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY. EPISODES OF DUST WILL BE HAD BETWEEN THE WAVES.

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED OVER GUAYAMA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD STILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW ELEVATED
STREAM LEVELS. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
WAVE WITH DUST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. A THIRD WAVE AROUND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...BUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TUTT OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW LOOKS
PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT AND WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN HAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
EARLY MORNING HRS...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.
DURING THE AFT 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...TO PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
IN/AROUND SHRA/TSRA...AFTER 01/12Z INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT ALSO IN THE PARTICULARLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
AGUADILLA IN THE WEST END OF ZONE 712 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011622
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1222 PM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TUTT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION STILL AFFECTING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PR BUT THE INTENSITY WAS MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HOWEVER...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS HAVE REACHED THE USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PR
BUT IN GENERAL MOST OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS
SAHARAN DUST SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THIS STABLE AIR MASS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
WHERE TSRA COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 01/18-21Z. EAST WINDS OF AROUND
20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. SCA CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WOBBLING 200 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...HOLDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT BY A WEAK TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY PULLING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA
TODAY HAVING CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY. EPISODES OF DUST WILL BE HAD BETWEEN THE WAVES.

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED OVER GUAYAMA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD STILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW ELEVATED
STREAM LEVELS. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
WAVE WITH DUST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. A THIRD WAVE AROUND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...BUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TUTT OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW LOOKS
PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT AND WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN HAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
EARLY MORNING HRS...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.
DURING THE AFT 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...TO PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
IN/AROUND SHRA/TSRA...AFTER 01/12Z INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT ALSO IN THE PARTICULARLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
AGUADILLA IN THE WEST END OF ZONE 712 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010939
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WOBBLING 200 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...HOLDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT BY A WEAK TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY PULLING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA
TODAY HAVING CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY. EPISODES OF DUST WILL BE HAD BETWEEN THE WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED OVER GUAYAMA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD STILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW ELEVATED
STREAM LEVELS. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
WAVE WITH DUST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. A THIRD WAVE AROUND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...BUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TUTT OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW LOOKS
PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT AND WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN HAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
EARLY MORNING HRS...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.
DURING THE AFT 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...TO PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
IN/AROUND SHRA/TSRA...AFTER 01/12Z INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT ALSO IN THE PARTICULARLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
AGUADILLA IN THE WEST END OF ZONE 712 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010939
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WOBBLING 200 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...HOLDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT BY A WEAK TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY PULLING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA
TODAY HAVING CROSSED THROUGH THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY. EPISODES OF DUST WILL BE HAD BETWEEN THE WAVES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNDER PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED OVER GUAYAMA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SHOULD STILL GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN A FEW ELEVATED
STREAM LEVELS. AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS
WAVE WITH DUST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY. A THIRD WAVE AROUND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST DURING THE DAY...BUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TUTT OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW LOOKS
PARTICULARLY PERSISTENT AND WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN HAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES EXCEPT IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
EARLY MORNING HRS...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED
IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.
DURING THE AFT 01/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ...TO PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUST
IN/AROUND SHRA/TSRA...AFTER 01/12Z INCREASING AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
THIS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT ALSO IN THE PARTICULARLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
AGUADILLA IN THE WEST END OF ZONE 712 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  78 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS BUT POPS AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN ADDED/INCREASED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT...21 KNOTS...TOWARD THE WNW. ALSO MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATES WE ARE STILL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A BETTER IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA CONTINUE OVER LCL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH 01/15Z. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 01/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL
WATERS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.

MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  81  88 /  20  20  20  40
STT  79  89  81  89 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS BUT POPS AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN ADDED/INCREASED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT...21 KNOTS...TOWARD THE WNW. ALSO MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATES WE ARE STILL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A BETTER IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA CONTINUE OVER LCL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH 01/15Z. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 01/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL
WATERS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.

MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  81  88 /  20  20  20  40
STT  79  89  81  89 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS BUT POPS AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN ADDED/INCREASED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT...21 KNOTS...TOWARD THE WNW. ALSO MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATES WE ARE STILL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A BETTER IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA CONTINUE OVER LCL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH 01/15Z. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 01/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL
WATERS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.

MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  81  88 /  20  20  20  40
STT  79  89  81  89 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS BUT POPS AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN ADDED/INCREASED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT...21 KNOTS...TOWARD THE WNW. ALSO MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATES WE ARE STILL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A BETTER IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA CONTINUE OVER LCL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH 01/15Z. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 01/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL
WATERS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.

MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  81  88 /  20  20  20  40
STT  79  89  81  89 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010440 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 AM AST WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR BOTH LAND AND SEA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS BUT POPS AND THUNDER HAVE BEEN ADDED/INCREASED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT...21 KNOTS...TOWARD THE WNW. ALSO MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATES WE ARE STILL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A BETTER IMPACT ON PUERTO RICO AND SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA CONTINUE OVER LCL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH 01/15Z. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 01/15Z.


&&

.MARINE...SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD STILL BE EXPECTED OVER LOCAL
WATERS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.

DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.

MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  81  88 /  20  20  20  40
STT  79  89  81  89 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN LAYER FOLLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF A TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ENHANCED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MAX RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND WESTERN PR. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DUE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERN PR. FAIR WEATHER ARE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SAHARAN DUST
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU
TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA...BUT VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WIND BLW FL100 SE 15-25 KT THRU
WED.


&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING PR ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET
AND BUOY 41052 SOUTH OF ST JOHN WAS AT 6 FEET EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  89 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

11/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  78 /  40  40  40  20
STT  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300154
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY A RELATIVELY BRIEF SHOWERS
ACROSS SW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME OF THEM AFFECTING LAND AREAS IN
THE EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

NO CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED
WITH SAHARAN DUST OVER THE LOCAL AREA SLOWLY DIMINISHING. TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN
INCREASE. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST TO
RETURN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 30/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY TUESDAY PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI
GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...IT WAS A DRY AND HAZY DAY WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE MOMENT...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI DURING THE NIGHT
PERIOD AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...ANOTHER SAHARAN
DUST EVENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE FLYING AREA. THEREFORE...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z.
WINDS OF 15-30 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL050.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST
TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA
ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS (RFWSJU &
RFDSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  79  89 /  20  30  40  40
STT  78  90  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300154
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY A RELATIVELY BRIEF SHOWERS
ACROSS SW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME OF THEM AFFECTING LAND AREAS IN
THE EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

NO CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED
WITH SAHARAN DUST OVER THE LOCAL AREA SLOWLY DIMINISHING. TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN
INCREASE. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST TO
RETURN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 30/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY TUESDAY PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI
GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...IT WAS A DRY AND HAZY DAY WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE MOMENT...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI DURING THE NIGHT
PERIOD AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...ANOTHER SAHARAN
DUST EVENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE FLYING AREA. THEREFORE...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z.
WINDS OF 15-30 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL050.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST
TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA
ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS (RFWSJU &
RFDSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  79  89 /  20  30  40  40
STT  78  90  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/25




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