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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...BY LOCATION OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS SOUTH OF WESTERN PR
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FOCUSSED THERE WHILE MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST HEATING HAS BEEN (WEST PR).
STILL...DO NOT EXPECT ESPECIALLY INTENSE RAINFALL SINCE THE
MOISTURE BARELY EXTENDS TO 700 MB...HAVING TO BREAK THE REMAINING
CAP BUT ONLY ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN.

DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT. ENOUGH HEATING EXPECTED TUE
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PR BUT MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE WED ISLANDWIDE AND EVEN EXTENDING BACK TO USVI
UNTIL LATE AFTERNON. SO RAISED POPS A LITTLE EVEN MORE THAN THE
LIKELY WE HAD. GRIDS OTHERWISE WERE PRETTY SOLID AND CHANGED
LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA INCR IN CNTRL/W PR BUT WL BEGIN TO DECR AGAIN ABOUT
21Z-22Z. TJMZ MAY HV PDS MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL
PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB
FL100 E 8-18 KT TONITE THEN ESE TUE. WDSPRD SHRA IN WEST AND
THUNDER MIGHT BE POSBL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DECAYING FRONT
NORTH OF 30N. THE RESULTANT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE SWELL
TARGETING HISPANIOLA AND BAHAMAS...WITH NO 6 FOOT SEAS REACHING
PR/USVI AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  88 /  10  10  30  40
STT  73  85  74  84 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301915
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...BY LOCATION OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS SOUTH OF WESTERN PR
LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FOCUSSED THERE WHILE MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST HEATING HAS BEEN (WEST PR).
STILL...DO NOT EXPECT ESPECIALLY INTENSE RAINFALL SINCE THE
MOISTURE BARELY EXTENDS TO 700 MB...HAVING TO BREAK THE REMAINING
CAP BUT ONLY ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN.

DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT. ENOUGH HEATING EXPECTED TUE
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PR BUT MUCH BETTER
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE WED ISLANDWIDE AND EVEN EXTENDING BACK TO USVI
UNTIL LATE AFTERNON. SO RAISED POPS A LITTLE EVEN MORE THAN THE
LIKELY WE HAD. GRIDS OTHERWISE WERE PRETTY SOLID AND CHANGED
LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA INCR IN CNTRL/W PR BUT WL BEGIN TO DECR AGAIN ABOUT
21Z-22Z. TJMZ MAY HV PDS MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL
PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB
FL100 E 8-18 KT TONITE THEN ESE TUE. WDSPRD SHRA IN WEST AND
THUNDER MIGHT BE POSBL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET IN SHORT TERM.
MODELS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DECAYING FRONT
NORTH OF 30N. THE RESULTANT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE SWELL
TARGETING HISPANIOLA AND BAHAMAS...WITH NO 6 FOOT SEAS REACHING
PR/USVI AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  88 /  10  10  30  40
STT  73  85  74  84 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301525
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF
PR TODAY WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE ISLAND AND TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TJSJ AND AT MACM SOUNDINGS STILL NO MORE THAN 1.25
IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER...MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN BETWEEN. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS OVER WEST PR AT PEAK HEATING TIME AND
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT INITIATION OF SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY. MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CAP TOO STEEP TO
EXPECT THUNDER AND NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NMRS SHRA TO INCR W PR IN AFT. TJMZ MAY HV PDS
MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB FL100 VRBL 8-15 KT BCMG
E 8-18 KT LATE AFT/TONITE...THEN ESE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS RATHER QUIET AND WILL MAX OUT TODAY AT 18
KT/5 FT LOCALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301525
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF
PR TODAY WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE ISLAND AND TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TJSJ AND AT MACM SOUNDINGS STILL NO MORE THAN 1.25
IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER...MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN BETWEEN. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS OVER WEST PR AT PEAK HEATING TIME AND
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT INITIATION OF SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY. MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CAP TOO STEEP TO
EXPECT THUNDER AND NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NMRS SHRA TO INCR W PR IN AFT. TJMZ MAY HV PDS
MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB FL100 VRBL 8-15 KT BCMG
E 8-18 KT LATE AFT/TONITE...THEN ESE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS RATHER QUIET AND WILL MAX OUT TODAY AT 18
KT/5 FT LOCALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301525
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF
PR TODAY WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE ISLAND AND TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TJSJ AND AT MACM SOUNDINGS STILL NO MORE THAN 1.25
IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER...MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN BETWEEN. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS OVER WEST PR AT PEAK HEATING TIME AND
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT INITIATION OF SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY. MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CAP TOO STEEP TO
EXPECT THUNDER AND NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NMRS SHRA TO INCR W PR IN AFT. TJMZ MAY HV PDS
MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB FL100 VRBL 8-15 KT BCMG
E 8-18 KT LATE AFT/TONITE...THEN ESE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS RATHER QUIET AND WILL MAX OUT TODAY AT 18
KT/5 FT LOCALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301525
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD MAINLY SOUTH OF
PR TODAY WHILE PRIMARY AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE ISLAND AND TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TJSJ AND AT MACM SOUNDINGS STILL NO MORE THAN 1.25
IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER...MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN BETWEEN. BEST
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PASS OVER WEST PR AT PEAK HEATING TIME AND
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT INITIATION OF SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY. MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW AND CAP TOO STEEP TO
EXPECT THUNDER AND NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NMRS SHRA TO INCR W PR IN AFT. TJMZ MAY HV PDS
MVFR AND MTN OBSC SPCLY WEST AND CNTRL PR. ELSEWHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AT MOST TO CAUSE ISOLD MVFR. WIND AOB FL100 VRBL 8-15 KT BCMG
E 8-18 KT LATE AFT/TONITE...THEN ESE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS RATHER QUIET AND WILL MAX OUT TODAY AT 18
KT/5 FT LOCALLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300922
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
HEIGHTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID
LATITUDES WILL CAUSE THE HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SHIFT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. A TROUGH WILL PASS BY NEXT THURSDAY
BUT A CUT-OFF LOW WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS BAND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF SAN JUAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX. CELL
MOVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NE-ENE IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE GFS AND THE NAM5 MODELS SHOW THIS AS A NARROW BAND THAT
TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND WILL AUGMENT SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A VERY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AND WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS...MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BUILD EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE FORMS IN CONNECTION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BAND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING BETTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN BEFORE THE MOISTURE CAN
COMPLETELY LEAVE THE AREA AT MID LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW APPROACHES
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM MINUS 7.2 DEGREES ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW 1.4 INCHES UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WHICH VALUES THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
WEEK. JUST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST...SUCH THAT SOME
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO BE DEFINITIVE...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SUNDAY`S SUNRISE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EAST
COASTS AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL060 WILL CLEAR AROUND
30/12Z OVER TIST/TISX. SHRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHRA ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AFT
30/12Z WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS...WITH SEA BREEZES.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL INCREASE AND SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
OUTER WATERS. WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER. THEY WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  75 /  10  10  10  30
STT  84  73  85  74 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300216
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...QUIET NIGHT HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS NEEDED AS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL080 WILL CLEAR AROUND
MIDNIGHT AST OVER MAINLAND PR. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND
AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS...WITH
SEA BREEZES AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300216
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1016 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...QUIET NIGHT HAS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE DOMINATING THE LOCAL
REGION. NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS NEEDED AS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT/BKN LAYERS AROUND FL080 WILL CLEAR AROUND
MIDNIGHT AST OVER MAINLAND PR. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 30/18-22Z IN AND
AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS...WITH
SEA BREEZES AFTER 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
FLAT RIDGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS WED UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND WEAKENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
SURGES THU INTO SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
IT SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY
AS H5 TEMPS COOL TO -9C AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-KT 250 MB JET STREAK.
SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
TOO DRY FOR ANY SIG FLOODING. WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMROVE NEXT
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA...MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS.
VRBL WIND BLO FL100 UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS STRENGTHEN UP
TO 20 KT THU AND FRI WITH T-STORMS LIKELY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  87 /  10  10  10  20
STT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291508
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED VERY DRY AIR AND IF ANYTHING...WILL GET
DRIER. ALL UPSTREAM RADIOSONDES DONE THIS MORNING (MACM/TFFR/MKPB)
ALL HAVE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN TJSJ. MIMIC-TPW CONFIRMS
THIS. HOWEVER...STREAMERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING DOWNWIND
OF SOME ISLANDS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THOSE AND ELSWHERE
AND THIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.

DECAYING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND NORTH 30N BEFORE
DISSIPATING MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LTL CHNG THRU MON. VFR WI ISOLD SHRA. MOST SHRA WL NOT
LWR CONDS. ESE WIND 14-23 KT THIS MRNG BLO FL100 WL WEAKEN IN AFT
TO VRBL UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT BY MON.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN MODERATE TO GENTLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT NOT ARRIVE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT TODAY WILL
LIKELY DROP A FOOT BY MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291508
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED VERY DRY AIR AND IF ANYTHING...WILL GET
DRIER. ALL UPSTREAM RADIOSONDES DONE THIS MORNING (MACM/TFFR/MKPB)
ALL HAVE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN TJSJ. MIMIC-TPW CONFIRMS
THIS. HOWEVER...STREAMERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING DOWNWIND
OF SOME ISLANDS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THOSE AND ELSWHERE
AND THIS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.

DECAYING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF PR/USVI AND NORTH 30N BEFORE
DISSIPATING MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LTL CHNG THRU MON. VFR WI ISOLD SHRA. MOST SHRA WL NOT
LWR CONDS. ESE WIND 14-23 KT THIS MRNG BLO FL100 WL WEAKEN IN AFT
TO VRBL UNDER 15 KT...THEN E 8-15 KT BY MON.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN MODERATE TO GENTLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT NOT ARRIVE. SEAS UP TO 5 FT TODAY WILL
LIKELY DROP A FOOT BY MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

54/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP/AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...FOR
TODAY THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE TO STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING CAP INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA PSBL FM 29/18-29/22Z OVR AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ...
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF FEW VCSH AT TJNR AND OVR E INTERIOR OF PR TIL
29/21Z. SFC WND LGT AND VARIABLE TIL 29/14Z...WITH LCL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 5-15 KNOTS...
BCMG LGT/VRB ABV AND UP TO FL250. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FFET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATETRS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  86  73  84  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 29/18-22Z IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERICE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN COLLAPSE NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALBEIT WEAKER. MOISTURE SURGES MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFLYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. POTENTIALLY
SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT SATURDAY AND PROBABLY THE MOST RAIN WE`VE SEEN
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF T-STORMS MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  75  86 /  10  10  10  10
STT  75  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 29/18-22Z IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERICE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN COLLAPSE NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALBEIT WEAKER. MOISTURE SURGES MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFLYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. POTENTIALLY
SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT SATURDAY AND PROBABLY THE MOST RAIN WE`VE SEEN
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF T-STORMS MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  75  86 /  10  10  10  10
STT  75  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 29/18-22Z IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERICE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN COLLAPSE NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALBEIT WEAKER. MOISTURE SURGES MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFLYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. POTENTIALLY
SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT SATURDAY AND PROBABLY THE MOST RAIN WE`VE SEEN
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF T-STORMS MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  75  86 /  10  10  10  10
STT  75  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290226
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT
OVERALL WILL REMAIN DRY. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE BETWEEN 29/18-22Z IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERICE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN COLLAPSE NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALBEIT WEAKER. MOISTURE SURGES MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SUCCUMBS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFLYING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. POTENTIALLY
SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT SATURDAY AND PROBABLY THE MOST RAIN WE`VE SEEN
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF T-STORMS MID
AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FAIR WX IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  75  86 /  10  10  10  10
STT  75  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71








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