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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091949
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER WISE...NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. AS A RESULT...DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. IS NOT UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AS TRADE
WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 09/20Z...ACROSS THE U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TAF SITES AFTER 09/23Z. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SWELLS ARE STARTING
TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING AROUND 2
FEET. IN ADDITION...THE SWELLS ACTION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PEAKING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  88  73  88 /  30  30  10  20
STT  74  86  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHWEST.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD
     TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091718
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091718
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091718
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091718
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 091718
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
118 PM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT...DECREASING AFTER 09/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT IS IN EFFECT ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090805
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM
     TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/10




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1145 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS
THE RIDGE ERODES ALOFT...AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

MARINEWISE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON RECENT
BUOYDATA FROM THE DISTANT OFFSHORE BUOYS 41046 EAST BAHAMAS AND
41047 NE BAHAMAS...WHICH BOTH SUGGESTS SEAS 12-17 FEET AT 12 TO
15 SECONDS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND JBQ AFT 09/17Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AT 4 TO 11 KT BELOW 2KFT. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...A DOMINANT LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD
MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  88 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  75  85 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 5 AM AST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD
     TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

27/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  89 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  74  83 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  89 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  74  83 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  89 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  74  83 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  89 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  74  83 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OF THE EASTERN COAST OF U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW WILL
PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILED THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND DOWNWIND FROM THE SURROUNDING
ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
MID WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 09/18Z ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP VCTY OF
TJBQ BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED
IN OPERATIONS...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN TAF. WINDS BLO
FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  89  75  89 /  10  20  30  30
STT  75  85  74  83 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 081505
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...SENT BY WFO MLB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
LATE THIS MORNING AND FOR THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PR WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST PR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. SHORT-TERM FORECAST GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND JBQ AFT 08/17Z...WITH POTENTIAL
ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. WINDS BELOW FL150 FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS
NORTHWEST SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/WFO MLB




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PARCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PARCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080920
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. PARCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST...WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ AFT 08/17Z. WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FM THE SE AT 10-15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
STT  84  76  84  74 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MID 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION AND IN
THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
VARIABLE WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 9 KT BELOW 2KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT SFC
WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE....SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS
BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MID 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION AND IN
THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
VARIABLE WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 9 KT BELOW 2KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT SFC
WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE....SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS
BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080239
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MID 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTION AND IN
THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
VARIABLE WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 9 KT BELOW 2KFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT SFC
WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO LAND BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE....SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS
BELOW 5 FT AND WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080207
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080207
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080207
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MID
LEVELS DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT
WEEKEND AND PEAKS THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE GROWS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND VALENTINES DAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO APPROACH
THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER
THE AREA EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND LEFT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OR MORE IN MANY PLACES. DURING THE MORNING IT BROKE IN HALF WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING BAYAMON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF MOVING THROUGH PONCE AND DISSIPATING IN UTUADO. FEW
SHOWER WERE SEEN NORTHWEST OF THIS. SOME SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS A STREAMER FROM SAINT CROIX CROSSED
VIEQUES AND MOVED THROUGH FAJARDO.

ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE WATERS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE DEVELOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
TO 0.85 INCHES ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN THE CHANCES OF BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. THIS
MODERATE LEVEL OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTER EACH DAY....WITH
SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS THOSE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH FORECAST BY THE MODELS...HAVE MADE A SCANT
SHOWING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OWING THE THE SEVERITY OF THE
DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS. THIS SHOULD END ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SFC WNDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DUE TO LAND BREEZE. HOWEVER...WINDS BLO FL150 WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME SWELL OF 6 TO 8
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING FROM
THE NORTHWEST HAVING BEEN GENERATED BY THE STORM NOW RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME
RELIEF FROM THIS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
STT  75  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12




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