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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281811
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure across the Central
Atlantic will continue to dominates the local area through at
least Friday. A tropical wave will move across the area Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers were seen across the eastern half
of Puerto Rico this morning. Later in the afternoon...the streamer
from el Yunque developed...producing scattered showers across the
San Juan metropolitan area. Another area of showers developed
across the western interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.
Some streamers developed also offshore Saint Croix.

Local area will continue to be dominated by a strong High
Pressure system through at least Friday. After Friday...a Tropical
Wave will affect the local Friday afternoon into Saturday. As a
result...an increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected.
After the passage of this wave...Saharan Air Layer will move
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
29/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with a few causing MVFR conds in
and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in
the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT with occasional
gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...seas 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  88 /  20  20  10  20
STT  80  89  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281811
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong surface high pressure across the Central
Atlantic will continue to dominates the local area through at
least Friday. A tropical wave will move across the area Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers were seen across the eastern half
of Puerto Rico this morning. Later in the afternoon...the streamer
from el Yunque developed...producing scattered showers across the
San Juan metropolitan area. Another area of showers developed
across the western interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.
Some streamers developed also offshore Saint Croix.

Local area will continue to be dominated by a strong High
Pressure system through at least Friday. After Friday...a Tropical
Wave will affect the local Friday afternoon into Saturday. As a
result...an increase in showers and thunderstorms are expected.
After the passage of this wave...Saharan Air Layer will move
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
29/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with a few causing MVFR conds in
and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in
the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT with occasional
gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...seas 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  88 /  20  20  10  20
STT  80  89  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Some passing showers were noted over the San Juan metro
area and across the southeast sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were
mainly southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Available moisture will combine
with daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly over the western
interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
western Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. There is also a chance for
SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ. Winds from the SE at
10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...No changes from previous discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Some passing showers were noted over the San Juan metro
area and across the southeast sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were
mainly southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Available moisture will combine
with daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly over the western
interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
western Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. There is also a chance for
SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ. Winds from the SE at
10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...No changes from previous discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Some passing showers were noted over the San Juan metro
area and across the southeast sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were
mainly southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Available moisture will combine
with daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly over the western
interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
western Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. There is also a chance for
SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ. Winds from the SE at
10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...No changes from previous discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...Some passing showers were noted over the San Juan metro
area and across the southeast sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were
mainly southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Available moisture will combine
with daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly over the western
interior and northwest section of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
western Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. There is also a chance for
SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ. Winds from the SE at
10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...No changes from previous discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280835
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280835
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
435 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper trough to the northwest of Hispaniola will
continue to dig and develop a low which is expected to be cutoff
and over Hispaniola by Thursday. Increase in moisture is expected
to today over the local islands causing locally induced showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters, but some briefly reaching the USVI and eastern PR. These
brief showers are expected to continue through the morning hours.
Even though the upper low that has affected us the past few days
has now weakened and moved away, the increasing moisture will
combine with the local effects and diurnal heating to cause the
development of showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
northwestern quadrant of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to
observe showers and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan
metro area and portions of eastern PR but these areas are not
expected to receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that
are expected in the central into northwestern PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday into
Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday as a
tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with slightly drier air moving in by Sunday morning.
According to long range models, another tropical wave may approach
the local area early next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 28/16Z and 28/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the SE at 10-15KT
with occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of northern Puerto Rico and the beaches of North and East
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
STT  89  80  89  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280132
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
932 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
At upper levels, a TUTT low will move over the Hispaniola during
the next few days as it slowly weakens. At the surface, a surface
high pressure over the North Central Atlantic will continue to
promote East to E-SE trade winds through at least midweek. The
next tropical wave is expected to move well south of the islands
followed by another system by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor changes were made to the short term grids to include the
current weather. Shower activity is expected to continue across
the local waters and the windward sections of the U.S.V.I. and
eastern PR during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours.
Then, showers and thunderstorm activity is possible to develop
downwind from the islands of U.S.V.I and into the Eastern
sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. In addition,
afternoon convection will be possible over the San Juan
Metropolitan area, as well as across the interior and western
section of Puerto Rico tomorrow Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds fcst at all TAF sites and local flying area
during entire prd. FM 28/06z-28/14z isold SHRA psbl en route btw
islands with SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025... FL050...mstly CLR abv. FM
28/17Z-28/22Z SCT-BKN cld lyrs Fl025... FL040 mainly ovr W PR...with
brief MVFR and MTN TOP OBSCR psbl in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds
fm E-SE blo FL100 at 15-20KT. Sfc wnd LGT/VRB til 28/14z bcmg
mainly fm SE 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts...except for
and local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions can be expected with seas below 5 feet
and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Winds are likely to increase at 10 to
20 knots across the Atlantic waters of north and northwestern PR
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Several showers were spotted across the
metropolitan area of San Juan during the late morning hours.
Streamers formed off the islands but remained across the local
waters. Showers also developed early afternoon across the western
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Further
development of locally induced convection along these areas can be
expected during the rest of the afternoon hours.

A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region
tonight and tomorrow. Therefore, light trade wind showers across
the local waters with a few moving inland across parts of the
islands from time to time can be expected during the night and
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will continue across the north central
Atlantic, maintaining an east to southeast wind flow over the
region. The upper level low located northeast of the local
islands will continue to dissipate as it moves towards the north
northeast. Saharan dust will prevail across the region but will
gradually diminish during the next several days.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
28/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and
around JBQ/JMZ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts
and local sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue
across the local waters tonight and tomorrow, with seas of 5 feet
or less and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Some passing showers may
produce brief periods of choppy seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  89 /  30  30   0  20
STT  79  88  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280132
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
932 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
At upper levels, a TUTT low will move over the Hispaniola during
the next few days as it slowly weakens. At the surface, a surface
high pressure over the North Central Atlantic will continue to
promote East to E-SE trade winds through at least midweek. The
next tropical wave is expected to move well south of the islands
followed by another system by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Minor changes were made to the short term grids to include the
current weather. Shower activity is expected to continue across
the local waters and the windward sections of the U.S.V.I. and
eastern PR during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours.
Then, showers and thunderstorm activity is possible to develop
downwind from the islands of U.S.V.I and into the Eastern
sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. In addition,
afternoon convection will be possible over the San Juan
Metropolitan area, as well as across the interior and western
section of Puerto Rico tomorrow Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds fcst at all TAF sites and local flying area
during entire prd. FM 28/06z-28/14z isold SHRA psbl en route btw
islands with SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025... FL050...mstly CLR abv. FM
28/17Z-28/22Z SCT-BKN cld lyrs Fl025... FL040 mainly ovr W PR...with
brief MVFR and MTN TOP OBSCR psbl in and around TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds
fm E-SE blo FL100 at 15-20KT. Sfc wnd LGT/VRB til 28/14z bcmg
mainly fm SE 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts...except for
and local sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions can be expected with seas below 5 feet
and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Winds are likely to increase at 10 to
20 knots across the Atlantic waters of north and northwestern PR
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Several showers were spotted across the
metropolitan area of San Juan during the late morning hours.
Streamers formed off the islands but remained across the local
waters. Showers also developed early afternoon across the western
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Further
development of locally induced convection along these areas can be
expected during the rest of the afternoon hours.

A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region
tonight and tomorrow. Therefore, light trade wind showers across
the local waters with a few moving inland across parts of the
islands from time to time can be expected during the night and
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will continue across the north central
Atlantic, maintaining an east to southeast wind flow over the
region. The upper level low located northeast of the local
islands will continue to dissipate as it moves towards the north
northeast. Saharan dust will prevail across the region but will
gradually diminish during the next several days.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
28/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and
around JBQ/JMZ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts
and local sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue
across the local waters tonight and tomorrow, with seas of 5 feet
or less and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Some passing showers may
produce brief periods of choppy seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  89 /  30  30   0  20
STT  79  88  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

09/27




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271800
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Several showers were spotted across the
metropolitan area of San Juan during the late morning hours.
Streamers formed off the islands but remained across the local
waters. Showers also developed early afternoon across the western
interior and southwestern portions of Puerto Rico. Further
development of locally induced convection along these areas can be
expected during the rest of the afternoon hours.

A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region
tonight and tomorrow. Therefore, light trade wind showers across
the local waters with a few moving inland across parts of the
islands from time to time can be expected during the night and
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will continue across the north central
Atlantic, maintaining an east to southeast wind flow over the
region. The upper level low located northeast of the local
islands will continue to dissipate as it moves towards the north
northeast. Saharan dust will prevail across the region but will
gradually diminish during the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
28/18z. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across west Puerto
Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and
around JBQ/JMZ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts
and local sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue
across the local waters tonight and tomorrow, with seas of 5 feet
or less and winds at 10 to 15 knots. Some passing showers may
produce brief periods of choppy seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  78  89 /  30  30   0  20
STT  79  88  79  89 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

08/05




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271344
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
944 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Light passing showers have been observed across the local waters
this morning, with a few brief showers detected mainly across the
windward portions of the islands. Shower and thunderstorm
activity can be expected mainly across the western interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Winds
will prevail from the east at 10-15 mph with sea breeze variations
along the coastal areas.

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to continue for the rest of the
forecast period. SHRA/TSRA can be expected across western PR
between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ/JMZ. VCSH/VCTS is pos for JSJ as well. Winds will continue
from the E at 15-20KT with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

.MARINE...No change to previous forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper low to the northeast of the local islands will
continue to move to the North and East as it weakens. Near normal
moisture is expected to remain over the local islands causing
locally induced showers and thunderstorms across portions of
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters. These brief showers are expected to continue through the
morning hours. Even though the upper low is expected to move away
as it weakens, the remaining moisture will combine with the local
effects and diurnal heating to cause the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the central, western, and northwestern
portions of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to observe showers
and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan metro area and
portions of eastern PR but these areas are not expected to
receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that are expected
in the central, western and northwestern portions of PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday
into Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday
as a tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with drier air moving in by Sunday morning. According to
long range models, another tropical wave may approach the local
area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is also a low risk of rip currents across the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /  20  30  30   0
STT  89  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

05/08




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271344
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
944 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Light passing showers have been observed across the local waters
this morning, with a few brief showers detected mainly across the
windward portions of the islands. Shower and thunderstorm
activity can be expected mainly across the western interior and
western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Winds
will prevail from the east at 10-15 mph with sea breeze variations
along the coastal areas.

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to continue for the rest of the
forecast period. SHRA/TSRA can be expected across western PR
between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ/JMZ. VCSH/VCTS is pos for JSJ as well. Winds will continue
from the E at 15-20KT with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

.MARINE...No change to previous forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper low to the northeast of the local islands will
continue to move to the North and East as it weakens. Near normal
moisture is expected to remain over the local islands causing
locally induced showers and thunderstorms across portions of
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters. These brief showers are expected to continue through the
morning hours. Even though the upper low is expected to move away
as it weakens, the remaining moisture will combine with the local
effects and diurnal heating to cause the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the central, western, and northwestern
portions of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to observe showers
and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan metro area and
portions of eastern PR but these areas are not expected to
receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that are expected
in the central, western and northwestern portions of PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday
into Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday
as a tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with drier air moving in by Sunday morning. According to
long range models, another tropical wave may approach the local
area early next Tuesday.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is also a low risk of rip currents across the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /  20  30  30   0
STT  89  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

05/08




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270907
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure over the North Central Atlantic
will continue to promote East to E-SE trade winds for the next
several days. Upper low to the northeast of the local islands will
continue to move to the North and East as it weakens. Near normal
moisture is expected to remain over the local islands causing
locally induced showers and thunderstorms across portions of
Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Brief trade wind showers have persisted over the
local waters through the overnight hours, mainly over the local
waters. These brief showers are expected to continue through the
morning hours. Even though the upper low is expected to move away
as it weakens, the remaining moisture will combine with the local
effects and diurnal heating to cause the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the central, western, and northwestern
portions of PR. Other areas in PR are expected to observe showers
and thunderstorms such as portions of the San Juan metro area and
portions of eastern PR but these areas are not expected to
receive the persistent moderate to heavy showers that are expected
in the central, western and northwestern portions of PR. Isolated
showers are expected elsewhere, but clouds and rain streaming off
the USVI, Vieques and Culebra are expected.

This pattern of locally induced showers is expected once again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then things dry off a little late Wednesday
into Thursday before moisture increases significantly on Friday
as a tropical wave approaches. The moisture associated with the
tropical wave is expected to remain over the local area through
Saturday, with drier air moving in by Sunday morning. According to
long range models, another tropical wave may approach the local
area early next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast cycle. However...SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across
west Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z...with MVFR conds
possible in and around JBQ/JMZ. There is also a chance for SHRA/
ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of JSJ. Winds from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected today across the
local waters. There is also a low risk of rip currents across the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  78 /  20  30  30   0
STT  89  79  88  79 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270134
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
934 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms affected the central
interior, western and interior sections of Puerto Rico. Some
sections received accumulations between one and three inches of
rain. Brief trade wind showers will move across the local waters
and across the windward over eastern Puerto Rico overnight and
early Monday morning. Once again, another round of locally
induced convection is expected across the interior and western
sections on Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected over most terminals through
27/17Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to develop over west and
interior Puerto Rico between 27/17Z and 27/22Z so at least VCTS is
expected for TJBQ, TJMZ, and TJPS. However, these is also a chance
of SHRA and ISOLD TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as
persistent. Sfc winds should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with
occasional gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil marine conditions are expected through most of the work
week, with seas of 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots
increasing at 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM AST SUN JUN 26 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
north central Atlantic for the next several days. Weak mid level
ridge across will continue to move west across the forecast area.
TUTT will move to the northeast of the area as an upper level
short wave takes it place just north of the area. Moderate trade
winds will continue through the forecast period. The next
tropical wave passage is expected on Friday.

DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms developed late in
the morning hours across the northern U.S. Virgin Islands...then
by early in the afternoon hours across San Juan and vicinity and the
interior and southern sections of Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated between 1-2 inches of rain across areas in Juana Diaz
and Ponce. Urban and small stream flooding is expected with the
heaviest showers through at least this afternoon.

TUTT will continue to shift to our northeast while weakening and
leaving the area on its convergent side during the next 12-24 hours.
Another TUTT will develop across the western Atlantic and extend a
short wave trof into the northern Caribbean islands with favorable
upper level dynamics expected across the area once again from
Tuesday thru Wednesday evening. Therefore, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the interior and western Puerto
Rico on Monday. Increasing on intensity and coverage from Tuesday
and Wednesday as moisture increases and divergent pattern settles
aloft. Fair weather pattern is expected to prevail under limited
low level moisture by the end of the week. As wind direction and
local effects will favor afternoon convection across the interior
and western sections of PR. The next tropical wave passage is
expected by Friday.

AVIATION...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to continue across west
and interior PR thru 22Z...so at least VCTS is expected for TJBQ,
TJMZ, and TJPS. However, there is also a chance of SHRA and ISOLD
TSRA in the vicinity of TJSJ, but not as persistent. Sfc winds
should prevail from the E at 10-15KT with occasional gusts and sea
breeze variations.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected during the next
few days, with seas 5 feet or less, and winds at 10 to 15 knots.
However...higher gusts due to thunderstorms and showers can be
expected each afternoon over the coastal waters of western PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  30
STT  80  91  79  91 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

71/27




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