Home > Products > State Listing > Puerto Rico Data
Latest:
 AFDSJU |
  [top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010903 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGES. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE DAY ON TAP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010903 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGES. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE DAY ON TAP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGE. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE ON TAP. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGE. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE ON TAP. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGE. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE ON TAP. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TS BERTHA EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PONCE SAT
AFTERNOON BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF TS BERTHA WILL LIMIT SHOWER CVRG
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
BERTHA. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI AFTER
06Z SAT REACHING ERN PR AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS BERTHA TRACKS WNW SOUTH OF PONCE AROUND 20
MPH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EL YUNQUE AND CAYEY
MOUNTAIN RANGE. REST OF PR AND USVI WILL LIKELY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST PR LIKELY TO SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN. STILL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SAT NIGHT BUT AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
PAST PR. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AND
EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS ONCE SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SAT
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS.

THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A VERY NICE ON TAP. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND TNCM IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 01/17-01/21Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF PR AND AFFECTING TJBQ
AND TJMZ. E-SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
FT SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEFORE THE RAINS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVER ST. CROIX LATER TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VIEQUES HAD SOME DECENT RAINS YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 0.62
INCHES SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW FOR THEM. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT ON TIME TO MAINLAND PR SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH UP TO
SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TOPOGRAPHICAL REGIONS OF THE CAYEY
AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF BERTHA. VERY LOW STREAM FLOWS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HEAVY RAINS
CAN HAVE QUICK IMPACTS ON RIVERS IN NORTHEAST PR DUE TO THEIR
SHORT LENGTH AND STEEP SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  81  82  78 /  20 100 100  90
STT  89  79  81  80 /  10 100 100  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...
&&

$$

23/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010209 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...TUTT LOW JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AIDED IN
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SINCE THEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAD MOVED OFF
SHORE OR DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND JUST EAST OF SAINT CROIX WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO STEER TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED LESSER ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WITH A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING
THE MARINE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW BASED ON THE PRESENT WEATHER SCENARIO
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 8 PM AST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS EVENING
DID FIND THE WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED SOME 350
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. SURFACE WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION BUT HAD LACKED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EARLIER.
SINCE THEN HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASED EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 MPH. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 02/00Z
XCP FOR SHRA AND MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER NE PR TIL 01/12Z AND BTW
TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 01/17Z WHERE AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WINDS ALF E TO SE 5 TO 15 KTS
INCRG TO 10 TO 20 KT AFT 01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS AND SEAS 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND 4 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DETERORIRATE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATEHR SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT
CROIX DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR...LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  20  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  20  10  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010209 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...TUTT LOW JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AIDED IN
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SINCE THEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAD MOVED OFF
SHORE OR DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND JUST EAST OF SAINT CROIX WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO STEER TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED LESSER ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WITH A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING
THE MARINE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW BASED ON THE PRESENT WEATHER SCENARIO
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 8 PM AST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS EVENING
DID FIND THE WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED SOME 350
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. SURFACE WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION BUT HAD LACKED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EARLIER.
SINCE THEN HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASED EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 MPH. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 02/00Z
XCP FOR SHRA AND MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER NE PR TIL 01/12Z AND BTW
TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 01/17Z WHERE AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WINDS ALF E TO SE 5 TO 15 KTS
INCRG TO 10 TO 20 KT AFT 01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS AND SEAS 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND 4 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DETERORIRATE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATEHR SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT
CROIX DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR...LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  20  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  20  10  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010151
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...TUTT LOW JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AIDED IN
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SINCE THEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAD MOVED OFF
SHORE OR DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND JUST EAST OF SAINT CROIX WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO STEER TOWARDS THE COASTAL AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED LESSER ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WITH A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING
THE MARINE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW BASED ON THE PRESENT WEATHER SCENARIO
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 8 PM AST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...THE AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS EVENING
DID FIND THE WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW LOCATED SOME 350
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OF BARBADOS. SURFACE WINDS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION BUT HAD LACKED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EARLIER.
SINCE THEN HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASED EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 MPH. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 02/00Z
XCP FOR SHRA AND MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER NE PR TIL 01/12Z AND BTW
TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 01/17Z WHERE AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WINDS ALF E TO SE 5 TO 15 KTS
INCRG TO 10 TO 20 KT AFT 01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS AND SEAS 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND 4 FEET OR LESS RESPECTIVELY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DETERORIRATE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATEHR SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT
CROIX DUE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR...LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  20  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  20  10  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  10  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  10   0  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311906
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN VEGA BAJA WEST
THROUGH ARECIBO. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 750
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE LOW CURRENTLY DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. RESIDENTS AND
VISITOR IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT
THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WINDS FOR VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  80  82 /  10  10  10  70
STT  81  88  81  81 /  10   0  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71












000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311442
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY. AT LOWER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS PR/USVI ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY E TO SE SFC WINDS WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET
SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.

FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311442
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY. AT LOWER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS PR/USVI ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...WILL KEEP VCTS AT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY E TO SE SFC WINDS WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET
SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SEAS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.

MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.

FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

08/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VIEQUES.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VIEQUES.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VIEQUES.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INVEST 93L LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE OVR NE PR SAT EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN
THROUGH FRI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND SECTIONS OF PR. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FRI AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVEST 93L WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF CONVECTION WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
LIKELY OVER VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INVEST 93L HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 6 HRS AND THIS HAS PROMPTED NHC TO RAISE
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL TO 60% OR LIKELY CATEGORY. ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS. LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A SWATH OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL AFFECT THE USVI. FOR A
6-HR PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AVERAGE AROUND FIVE INCHES
SO THINK A RANGE OF THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OVR NE PR/EL YUNQUE
AREA WHERE BEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. REST OF PR
WILL SEE MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN CVRG AND
INTENSITY AFTER 06Z SUN AS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WINDS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE DIMINISH.

TURNING MUCH DRIER EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
IN. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINS SAT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SOUTHWEST PR.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FM 31/16-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS LIKELY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE SE AT 5-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE TS CONDITIONS SAT-SAT NIGHT AS INVEST 93L
TRACKS WNW AROUND 15 KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL TS CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS 35-40 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG DRYING EXPECTED OVR VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX FRI
AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...THE DRY
AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING OVR MAINLAND PR.
FOR THIS REASON ONLY INCLUDED VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX IN A FIRE WX
WATCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  80 /  40  10  10  10
STT  88  81  88  81 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VIEQUES.

VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ST CROIX.

COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310150
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
950 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OVER LAND AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PRD. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-SHRA MAY
BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE
NRN LEEWARDS FM 31/04Z-31/12Z WITH VCSH NR TJSJ...TJNR...TISX AND
TIST. ON THURSDAY...PASSING SHRA FM 31/17-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE CTRL INTERIOR
AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCSH PSBL
AT TJSJ. GENERAL WND BLO FL150 FM SE AT 5-15 KTS DURG PRD. NO OTHER
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS REACH THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310150
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
950 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OVER LAND AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PRD. HOWEVER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-SHRA MAY
BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE
NRN LEEWARDS FM 31/04Z-31/12Z WITH VCSH NR TJSJ...TJNR...TISX AND
TIST. ON THURSDAY...PASSING SHRA FM 31/17-31/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR CIGS
PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE CTRL INTERIOR
AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCSH PSBL
AT TJSJ. GENERAL WND BLO FL150 FM SE AT 5-15 KTS DURG PRD. NO OTHER
SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS REACH THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  20  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL LINGER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TOMORROW...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL REGION. AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE
WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE
NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD WITH VCSH...EXCPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL DUE ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ENDING ARND 30/21Z. E-SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS NR STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71











000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301442
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREV...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT
AT JBQ WHERE A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE
10-15 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM AST WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS STILL EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
BY THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE THE LOCAL AREA
STAYS UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH SOME BUT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION AND A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT. SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LOOSEN QUITE A BIT ON
THURSDAY...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ALSO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EVEN
MORE AND ONCE AGAIN HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WHILE EASTERN
PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED AROUND LONGITUDE 44 WEST
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IT
DOES SEEM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO AGREE A BIT MORE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND HAS
THIS SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD GIVE NORTHEASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL
UNSURE OF WHEN WILL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JBQ WHERE
A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS MAINLY SE 10-15 KT XCPT
WESTERLY AT JMZ AROUND 10 KT. LOW PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC LIKELY TO
BECOME TD#3 TONIGHT OR THU AND PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
AFTERNOON AND NEAR OR TO THE NE OF THE USVI LATE SAT NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  10  10  20  30
STT  89  78  89  78 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities