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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  83 /  20  30  30  10
STT  77  86  75  86 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 251457
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
THIS PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR JUST
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ AS PASSING SHOWERS AFFECT THE TERMINAL FROM
TIME TO TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250837
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  81  85  79 /  30  20  30  30
STT  82  81  82  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING
-SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER AND EN ROUTE BTW
LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI TERMINALS AND ERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT BLO FL200 DURG PRD. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS
W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING
-SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER AND EN ROUTE BTW
LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI TERMINALS AND ERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT BLO FL200 DURG PRD. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS
W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING
-SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER AND EN ROUTE BTW
LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI TERMINALS AND ERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT BLO FL200 DURG PRD. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS
W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RELOCATES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING
-SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER AND EN ROUTE BTW
LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI TERMINALS AND ERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT BLO FL200 DURG PRD. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS
W/PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALLOWING THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

09/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241822
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241822
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  75  84 /  40  10  30  30
STT  78  86  77  87 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241536
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1136 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH WILL BE AROUND MOST TAF
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 24/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN WAS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL EXCEPT
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241536
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1136 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH WILL BE AROUND MOST TAF
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 24/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41053 IN SAN JUAN WAS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL EXCEPT
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

71/72







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240734
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240734
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240734
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240734
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240140
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WESTWARD LEAVING LITTLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.42 INCHES THIS EVENING AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM TFFR (GUADELOUPE) SHOWED
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE TO NEAR 1.88
INCHES. EXPECT THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SO EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ OVERNIGHT. TJSJ 00Z
RAOB INDICATED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT 15-25 KT BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE LOCAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS
AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALL
SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS UP TO NEAR 8 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST
DAY AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME
TIME...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  78  89  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240140
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WESTWARD LEAVING LITTLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.42 INCHES THIS EVENING AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM TFFR (GUADELOUPE) SHOWED
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE TO NEAR 1.88
INCHES. EXPECT THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SO EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ OVERNIGHT. TJSJ 00Z
RAOB INDICATED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT 15-25 KT BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE LOCAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS
AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALL
SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS UP TO NEAR 8 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST
DAY AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME
TIME...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  78  89  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240140
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WESTWARD LEAVING LITTLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.42 INCHES THIS EVENING AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM TFFR (GUADELOUPE) SHOWED
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE TO NEAR 1.88
INCHES. EXPECT THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SO EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ OVERNIGHT. TJSJ 00Z
RAOB INDICATED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT 15-25 KT BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE LOCAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS
AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALL
SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS UP TO NEAR 8 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST
DAY AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME
TIME...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  78  89  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240140
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WESTWARD LEAVING LITTLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.42 INCHES THIS EVENING AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM TFFR (GUADELOUPE) SHOWED
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE TO NEAR 1.88
INCHES. EXPECT THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SO EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ OVERNIGHT. TJSJ 00Z
RAOB INDICATED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT 15-25 KT BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM THE LOCAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS
AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALL
SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS UP TO NEAR 8 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THEREFORE MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST
DAY AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME
TIME...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  78  89  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON AST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/09





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