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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  77  84  76 /  70  20  30  30
STT  87  77  88  77 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  77  84  76 /  70  20  30  30
STT  87  77  88  77 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  77  84  76 /  70  20  30  30
STT  87  77  88  77 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  77  84  76 /  70  20  30  30
STT  87  77  88  77 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212238 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD NEXT 24 HRS FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN PR OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE RISE THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND GOES SOUNDER DATA WITH
T-STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVR FAJARDO WHICH DUMPED 1.14 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR. LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL TROF
AND 850 MB JET THAT WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PR. MODELS SHOW A 6-HR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER
THIS AREA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z. FAIR WX CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FIRST UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THEN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE ALONG COASTLINES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES
AFT 22/03Z TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS
ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/03-15Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  84 /  80  70  30  30
STT  77  87  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

64/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212238 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD NEXT 24 HRS FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN PR OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE RISE THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND GOES SOUNDER DATA WITH
T-STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVR FAJARDO WHICH DUMPED 1.14 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR. LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL TROF
AND 850 MB JET THAT WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PR. MODELS SHOW A 6-HR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER
THIS AREA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z. FAIR WX CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FIRST UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THEN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE ALONG COASTLINES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES
AFT 22/03Z TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS
ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/03-15Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  84 /  80  70  30  30
STT  77  87  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

64/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212238 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD NEXT 24 HRS FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN PR OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE RISE THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND GOES SOUNDER DATA WITH
T-STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVR FAJARDO WHICH DUMPED 1.14 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR. LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL TROF
AND 850 MB JET THAT WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PR. MODELS SHOW A 6-HR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER
THIS AREA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z. FAIR WX CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FIRST UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THEN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE ALONG COASTLINES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES
AFT 22/03Z TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS
ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/03-15Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  84 /  80  70  30  30
STT  77  87  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

64/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212238 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD NEXT 24 HRS FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN PR OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE RISE THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND GOES SOUNDER DATA WITH
T-STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVR FAJARDO WHICH DUMPED 1.14 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR. LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL TROF
AND 850 MB JET THAT WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PR. MODELS SHOW A 6-HR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER
THIS AREA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z. FAIR WX CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FIRST UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THEN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE ALONG COASTLINES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES
AFT 22/03Z TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS
ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/03-15Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  84 /  80  70  30  30
STT  77  87  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST.


VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

64/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
SAINT JOHN WILL DISSIPATE INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AS A LOW CUTS OFF ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT A HIGH FRESH OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS IS BECOMING WETTER TONIGHT AS IT FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RISE CLOSE TO 2.2 INCHES BY 22/06Z TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STILL VERY WEAK TO MISSING
AFTER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOST
OF EASTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES RECEIVED RAIN. SHOWERS WERE ALSO
FALLING IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AT 3 PM AST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT WESTERN PUERTO RICO STILL
HAS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS THERE
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH BETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW 1.3 INCHES SEVERAL TIMES NEXT WEEK...
THE SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS SO TYPICAL OF NOVEMBER SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE USUAL PLACES IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE COOLER AND HOLD CLOSE TO NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK. INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE TAKEN SEAS DOWN FOR A LITTLE WHILE OVER ALL OF THE
AREA AS SEAS OBSERVED ARE NOT MEASURING UP TO THE MODEL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL STILL INCREASE FROM THEIR PRESENT STATE
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER MORE THAN
JUST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER TONIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WINDS AS THE HIGH INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  84 /  90  90  30  30
STT  77  87  77  88 /  70  70  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211521
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO
FAR ACROSS THE FA TODAY. PASSING SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SOME OF THEM AFFECTING ST. CROIX...VIEQUES
AND PARTS OF EASTERN PR. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SPREAD OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SOME REACHING PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT
TNCM/TKPK WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  77 /  80  90  90  30
STT  87  74  87  76 /  60  70  70  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST TUESDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO NOON AST
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON AST
     TUESDAY FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211032 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  77 /  90  90  90  40
STT  87  74  87  76 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211032 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  77 /  90  90  90  40
STT  87  74  87  76 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WITH URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  77 /  90  90  90  40
STT  87  74  87  76 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WITH URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  78  85  77 /  90  90  90  40
STT  87  74  87  76 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

25/23







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 202232 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MON AS CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SHARP DRYING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SO
UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND IMPROVE SKY CVR
GRIDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR FROM AREAS FROM ABOUT
ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO AND USVI. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVR
THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND NORTHEAST PR WHERE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT RAPIDLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUN AND MON WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON MON BUT
OVERALL FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. P6SM SKC.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SAT THROUGH MON 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  75  86 /  20  90  90  90
STT  79  81  77  87 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 202232 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MON AS CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SHARP DRYING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SO
UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND IMPROVE SKY CVR
GRIDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR FROM AREAS FROM ABOUT
ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO AND USVI. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVR
THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND NORTHEAST PR WHERE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT RAPIDLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUN AND MON WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON MON BUT
OVERALL FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. P6SM SKC.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SAT THROUGH MON 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  75  86 /  20  90  90  90
STT  79  81  77  87 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 202232 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MON AS CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SHARP DRYING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SO
UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND IMPROVE SKY CVR
GRIDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR FROM AREAS FROM ABOUT
ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO AND USVI. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVR
THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND NORTHEAST PR WHERE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT RAPIDLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUN AND MON WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON MON BUT
OVERALL FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. P6SM SKC.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SAT THROUGH MON 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  75  86 /  20  90  90  90
STT  79  81  77  87 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 202232 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MON AS CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SHARP DRYING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SO
UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND IMPROVE SKY CVR
GRIDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR FROM AREAS FROM ABOUT
ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO AND USVI. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVR
THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND NORTHEAST PR WHERE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT RAPIDLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUN AND MON WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON MON BUT
OVERALL FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. P6SM SKC.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SAT THROUGH MON 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  86  75  86 /  20  90  90  90
STT  79  81  77  87 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

64/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  86 /  60  90  90  90
STT  77  88  77  87 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  86 /  60  90  90  90
STT  77  88  77  87 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  86 /  60  90  90  90
STT  77  88  77  87 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  75  86 /  60  90  90  90
STT  77  88  77  87 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201614 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRIGN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. A STREAMER FORMING
OFF OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LUQUILLO TO A LITTLE WEST OF SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  90  90
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201614 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRIGN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. A STREAMER FORMING
OFF OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LUQUILLO TO A LITTLE WEST OF SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  90  90
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201614 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRIGN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. A STREAMER FORMING
OFF OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LUQUILLO TO A LITTLE WEST OF SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  90  90
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201614 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRIGN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. A STREAMER FORMING
OFF OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LUQUILLO TO A LITTLE WEST OF SAN JUAN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  90  90
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201527
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  70  70
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201527
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  70  70
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201527
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  70  70
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201527
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1127 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MID MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WERE
REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND
SOME MAY REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER PR BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS...CREATING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/16Z SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY JMZ THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z...VCSH AT
JBQ AND JPS. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  74 /  40  60  70  70
STT  87  77  87  77 /  40  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

13/12






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