Home > Products > State Listing > Puerto Rico Data
Latest:
 AFDSJU |
  [top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 275 MILES OF
GUADELOUPE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM
LATE TONIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AS TROPICAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...IS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 275
MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITOR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE THEIR FAMILY PLAN
READY...MAINLY PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS...SMALL STREAM AND
RIVERS. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST LOCAL UPDATED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 22/00. AFTER THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS USVI
AND PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. E-NE WINDS AT 15-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY...THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. REFER TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (FFASJU) FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  86  78  88 /  60  90  80  80
STT  79  88  79  87 /  60  90  80  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
     VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 212004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 275 MILES OF
GUADELOUPE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM
LATE TONIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN SQUALLS AS TROPICAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...IS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 275
MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITOR ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE THEIR FAMILY PLAN
READY...MAINLY PEOPLE LIVING NEAR CREEKS...SMALL STREAM AND
RIVERS. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST LOCAL UPDATED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 22/00. AFTER THAT MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ACROSS USVI
AND PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. E-NE WINDS AT 15-30 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY...THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. REFER TO LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT (FFASJU) FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  86  78  88 /  60  90  80  80
STT  79  88  79  87 /  60  90  80  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
     VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM AST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211513
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS
THE USVI...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST
OF THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS SATURDAY. FOR THOSE
REASONS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND FOR THE USVI UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND PR TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
     VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211513
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS
THE USVI...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST
OF THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS SATURDAY. FOR THOSE
REASONS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND FOR THE USVI UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND PR TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT. THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.

HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
     VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
     VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST AS THEY START AFFECTING THE USVI IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOWED SIGNS OR WAKENING
DURING THE NIGHT BUT NOW ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE GAINING SOME
CONVECTION AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACCORDING AT 10-15 MPH ACCORDING TO
THE NHC. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NHC GIVES THIS SYSTEM
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED PROFILE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE 21/00Z GFS RUN.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN ON SUNDAY BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY THAT WE SEE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEEWARD SITES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DETERIORATING CONDS ACROSS USVI AND
PR TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. E-NE AT 10-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
TONIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERIORATE
THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SEAS IMPROVING STARTING ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BASED ON THE LATEST
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FFA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  86  78 /  40  60  90  80
STT  89  79  88  79 /  40  60  90  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SATURDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON AST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210333
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD. DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AND MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
DID MODIFY AND ADJUST THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORMING JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THIS FEATURE
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS SQUALLS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/12Z VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD AROUND TKPK/TNCM. THEN...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. THE 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EAST WINDS FM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-19 KTS...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND 17 KNOTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND OTHER MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210333
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD. DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AND MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
DID MODIFY AND ADJUST THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORMING JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THIS FEATURE
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS SQUALLS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/12Z VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD AROUND TKPK/TNCM. THEN...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. THE 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EAST WINDS FM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-19 KTS...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND 17 KNOTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND OTHER MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210333
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD. DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AND MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
DID MODIFY AND ADJUST THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORMING JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THIS FEATURE
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS SQUALLS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/12Z VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD AROUND TKPK/TNCM. THEN...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. THE 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EAST WINDS FM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-19 KTS...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND 17 KNOTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND OTHER MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210333
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD. DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AND MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
DID MODIFY AND ADJUST THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORMING JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THIS FEATURE
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS SQUALLS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/12Z VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD AROUND TKPK/TNCM. THEN...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. THE 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EAST WINDS FM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-19 KTS...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND 17 KNOTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND OTHER MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201923
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SLOPES TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN JAYUYA AND MAYAGUEZ. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201923
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SLOPES TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN JAYUYA AND MAYAGUEZ. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  77  86 /  40  60  60  90
STT  79  90  79  89 /  40  50  60  90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201359 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...IMMEDIATE PICTURE SHOWS DECREASING WATER VAPOR UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER RAMPS UP FOR STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS FRIDAY ARE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND
CHARACTER OF THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
HEAVIER RAIN COULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN CURRENT
THINKING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT MODELS SHOW CONTINUED SHOWERS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND THURSDAY AND FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  77 /  40  40  60  60
STT  89  79  90  79 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201359 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...IMMEDIATE PICTURE SHOWS DECREASING WATER VAPOR UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER RAMPS UP FOR STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS FRIDAY ARE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND
CHARACTER OF THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
HEAVIER RAIN COULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN CURRENT
THINKING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT MODELS SHOW CONTINUED SHOWERS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND THURSDAY AND FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  77 /  40  40  60  60
STT  89  79  90  79 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201359 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...IMMEDIATE PICTURE SHOWS DECREASING WATER VAPOR UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER RAMPS UP FOR STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS FRIDAY ARE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND
CHARACTER OF THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
HEAVIER RAIN COULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN CURRENT
THINKING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT MODELS SHOW CONTINUED SHOWERS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND THURSDAY AND FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  77 /  40  40  60  60
STT  89  79  90  79 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201359 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...IMMEDIATE PICTURE SHOWS DECREASING WATER VAPOR UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER RAMPS UP FOR STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS FRIDAY ARE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND
CHARACTER OF THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
HEAVIER RAIN COULD ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER ON FRIDAY THAN CURRENT
THINKING.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT MODELS SHOW CONTINUED SHOWERS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY AND THURSDAY AND FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS EXCEEDING
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.

MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  77 /  40  40  60  60
STT  89  79  90  79 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200950
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  79 /  40  30  40  50
STT  89  79  90  80 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200950
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  79 /  40  30  40  50
STT  89  79  90  80 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities