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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE
EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH
30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN
ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  20  20
STT  89  80  90  80 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST-
     WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300136
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TUTT INDUCE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WAS NOW
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND JUST OFF SHORE OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MORNING...AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DID
HOWEVER UPDATE THE SHORT/LONG TERM WINDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM A TROP WAVE WL CONT TO MOVE WWARD
INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING PDS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND
TKPK IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS TIL ABT 30/18Z. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS ARND TIST AND TISX BY 30/03Z WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL FOR BRIEF
PDS. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT IN ERN PR TIL AFT 30/20Z.
SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVR WRN AND INTERIOR PR BY 30/17Z AND PERSIST
UNTIL ARND 31/00Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND PDS OF MVFR AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS ALF ELY 15 TO 25 KT BCMG SE AFT 30/12Z. SFC GUSTS
TO 28 KT AFT 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  89  82  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  80  89  80  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300136
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TUTT INDUCE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WAS NOW
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND JUST OFF SHORE OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MORNING...AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DID
HOWEVER UPDATE THE SHORT/LONG TERM WINDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM A TROP WAVE WL CONT TO MOVE WWARD
INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING PDS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND
TKPK IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS TIL ABT 30/18Z. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS ARND TIST AND TISX BY 30/03Z WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL FOR BRIEF
PDS. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT IN ERN PR TIL AFT 30/20Z.
SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVR WRN AND INTERIOR PR BY 30/17Z AND PERSIST
UNTIL ARND 31/00Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND PDS OF MVFR AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS ALF ELY 15 TO 25 KT BCMG SE AFT 30/12Z. SFC GUSTS
TO 28 KT AFT 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  89  82  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  80  89  80  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300136
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TUTT INDUCE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WAS NOW
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND JUST OFF SHORE OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MORNING...AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DID
HOWEVER UPDATE THE SHORT/LONG TERM WINDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM A TROP WAVE WL CONT TO MOVE WWARD
INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING PDS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND
TKPK IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS TIL ABT 30/18Z. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS ARND TIST AND TISX BY 30/03Z WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL FOR BRIEF
PDS. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT IN ERN PR TIL AFT 30/20Z.
SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVR WRN AND INTERIOR PR BY 30/17Z AND PERSIST
UNTIL ARND 31/00Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND PDS OF MVFR AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS ALF ELY 15 TO 25 KT BCMG SE AFT 30/12Z. SFC GUSTS
TO 28 KT AFT 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  89  82  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  80  89  80  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300136
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TUTT INDUCE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WAS NOW
CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND SATELLITE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND JUST OFF SHORE OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MORNING...AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DID
HOWEVER UPDATE THE SHORT/LONG TERM WINDS AND SEAS BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGEST ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM A TROP WAVE WL CONT TO MOVE WWARD
INTO THE NERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING PDS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND
TKPK IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS TIL ABT 30/18Z. SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS ARND TIST AND TISX BY 30/03Z WITH MVFR CONDS PSBL FOR BRIEF
PDS. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT IN ERN PR TIL AFT 30/20Z.
SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVR WRN AND INTERIOR PR BY 30/17Z AND PERSIST
UNTIL ARND 31/00Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND PDS OF MVFR AT TJMZ
AND TJBQ. WINDS ALF ELY 15 TO 25 KT BCMG SE AFT 30/12Z. SFC GUSTS
TO 28 KT AFT 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  89  82  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  80  89  80  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/09



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291833
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  81  89  80  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291833
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  81  89  80  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291833
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  81  89  80  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291833
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. FIRST TROPICAL
WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY..LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
LOCAL AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION BY
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA
COMPARED TO THE WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT US TOMORROW. IN THE LONG
TERM..AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE USVI AND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM AFTER
29/22Z...ACROSS TISX AND TIST AFTER 30/03Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AND TJPS
AFTER 30/06Z. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA AND
TSRA FROM 30/17Z TO 30/21Z. WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  81  89  81  90 /  40  40  10  30
STT  81  89  80  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291547
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1147 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE MOISTURE LEAVING BY THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. ERIKA
DISSIPATES OVER HAITI THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND POSSIBLE
TJBQ BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY TODAY WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY
STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
WEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSED
BRIEF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THERE IS ALSO TODAY A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY BEACHES IN OUR LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY GO UP TO 2.2
INCHES. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME GOOD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD EVERYTHING LOOKS RATHER NORMAL. PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. HOWEVER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FROM THURSDAY ON...AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH 29/13Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS ARE CHOPPY AND WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS REPORTED BY SOME OF THE LOCAL BUOYS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET AND SEAS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THERE IS ALSO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  89  81 /  20  40  40  10
STT  90  81  89  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291547
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1147 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE MOISTURE LEAVING BY THE FORMER TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. ERIKA
DISSIPATES OVER HAITI THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL
AREA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE UP TO 2.2 INCHES BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND POSSIBLE
TJBQ BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY TODAY WITH WINDS OF 18 KNOTS
AND HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT THEY
STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
WEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSED
BRIEF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THERE IS ALSO TODAY A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY BEACHES IN OUR LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY GO UP TO 2.2
INCHES. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME GOOD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD EVERYTHING LOOKS RATHER NORMAL. PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. HOWEVER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FROM THURSDAY ON...AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH 29/13Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS ARE CHOPPY AND WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS REPORTED BY SOME OF THE LOCAL BUOYS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET AND SEAS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THERE IS ALSO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  89  81 /  20  40  40  10
STT  90  81  89  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

72/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
WEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSED
BRIEF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THERE IS ALSO TODAY A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY BEACHES IN OUR LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY GO UP TO 2.2
INCHES. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME GOOD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD EVERYTHING LOOKS RATHER NORMAL. PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. HOWEVER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FROM THURSDAY ON...AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH 29/13Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE CHOPPY AND WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS REPORTED BY SOME OF THE LOCAL BUOYS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET AND SEAS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THERE IS ALSO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  89  81 /  20  40  40  10
STT  90  81  89  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
WEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSED
BRIEF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THERE IS ALSO TODAY A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY BEACHES IN OUR LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY GO UP TO 2.2
INCHES. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME GOOD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD EVERYTHING LOOKS RATHER NORMAL. PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. HOWEVER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FROM THURSDAY ON...AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH 29/13Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE CHOPPY AND WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS REPORTED BY SOME OF THE LOCAL BUOYS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET AND SEAS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THERE IS ALSO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  89  81 /  20  40  40  10
STT  90  81  89  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
WEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE CAUSED
BRIEF SHOWERS TO MOVE IN...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THERE IS ALSO TODAY A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS MANY BEACHES IN OUR LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY GO UP TO 2.2
INCHES. WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME GOOD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE WEEK AHEAD EVERYTHING LOOKS RATHER NORMAL. PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. HOWEVER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN...WHICH WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FROM THURSDAY ON...AGAIN LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH 29/13Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AT JMZ
BETWEEN 29/18Z AND 29/23Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE CHOPPY AND WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS REPORTED BY SOME OF THE LOCAL BUOYS. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY BUT THEY STILL ARE UP TO 6 FEET AND SEAS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THERE IS ALSO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  81  89  81 /  20  40  40  10
STT  90  81  89  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290303
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WATERS OF
HAITI. A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.
SOME BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED...BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOCAL AREAS. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERIT FORECAST...BUT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR
FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEAS
AND WINDS ARE SUBSIDING. THE SEAS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

09/27



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR
     SOUTHEAST.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/12



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL FORM NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVELS WILL DRY AS ERIKA MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MOISTURE FOR SUNDAY. A SECOND
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TWO TROUGHS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMED IN ONE OF THE LAST RAIN
BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICA AND ARE BRINGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE
WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THEM HAD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WIND FLOW ONLY
HUNDREDS OF FEET ABOVE. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS THAT THESE STORMS ENTERED BY MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.

CONTINUED DRYING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES THE AREA. THIS WILL NOT PROHIBIT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING SATURDAY AFTER NOON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THIS SHOULD BE IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO SOME MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH WILL
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THE
TWO WAVES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO TROPICAL STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT MODELS SHOW A CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPON EXIT OF A WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS CIRCULATION WOULD NOT REACH PUERTO RICO IN THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
29/02Z...BUT VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE WESTERN
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
AS THE EFFECTS OF ERIKA SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WATERS NEAR RINCON AND ALL
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEAR-SHORE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE NORTH COST OF PUERTO RICO ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 4 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  90  80  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR
     SOUTHEAST.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN
     WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

11/12




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281643
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1243 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PR AND ALL OTHER LOCAL WATERS. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS LET TO EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO TS ERIKA NOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WERE STREAMING ACROSS PR THIS
MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER PR AND SURROUNDING WATERS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS
JPS/JMZ/JBQ THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED TO ERIKA AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ESE WINDS AT THE SFC BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12-14 FEET RANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EXPOSED CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MONA PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNT WERE MEASURED
ACROSS THE LOIZA BASIN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5
AND WFO SJU TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TS ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER 28/16Z BUT VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST SO TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS LEFT OUT. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40
STT  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI
     FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10
     NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

99/99



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281643
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1243 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PR AND ALL OTHER LOCAL WATERS. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS LET TO EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO TS ERIKA NOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WERE STREAMING ACROSS PR THIS
MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER PR AND SURROUNDING WATERS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS
JPS/JMZ/JBQ THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED TO ERIKA AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ESE WINDS AT THE SFC BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12-14 FEET RANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EXPOSED CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MONA PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNT WERE MEASURED
ACROSS THE LOIZA BASIN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5
AND WFO SJU TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TS ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER 28/16Z BUT VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST SO TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS LEFT OUT. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40
STT  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI
     FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10
     NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

99/99



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281643
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1243 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PR AND ALL OTHER LOCAL WATERS. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS LET TO EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO TS ERIKA NOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WERE STREAMING ACROSS PR THIS
MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER PR AND SURROUNDING WATERS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS
JPS/JMZ/JBQ THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED TO ERIKA AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ESE WINDS AT THE SFC BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12-14 FEET RANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EXPOSED CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MONA PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNT WERE MEASURED
ACROSS THE LOIZA BASIN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5
AND WFO SJU TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TS ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER 28/16Z BUT VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST SO TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS LEFT OUT. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40
STT  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI
     FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10
     NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

99/99



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281643
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1243 PM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN
U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU EASTERN PR. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PR AND ALL OTHER LOCAL WATERS. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS LET TO EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO TS ERIKA NOW LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WERE STREAMING ACROSS PR THIS
MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER PR AND SURROUNDING WATERS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS
JPS/JMZ/JBQ THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED TO ERIKA AND
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ESE WINDS AT THE SFC BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...LATEST UPPER AIR TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED 30-55 KT SSE
WINDS BETWEEN 1000-9000 FT.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12-14 FEET RANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EXPOSED CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MONA PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
RANGED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNT WERE MEASURED
ACROSS THE LOIZA BASIN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED. WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE BUT WILL CONTINUE AT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5
AND WFO SJU TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH TS ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS NEAR FL050. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER 28/16Z BUT VCSH/VCTS IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST SO TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS LEFT OUT. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40
STT  85  77  90  80 /  90  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
     INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI
     FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10
     NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

99/99



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