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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190809
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN WEAKEN ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-700 MB TROF CURRENTLY MOVING WWD THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
ENE WINDS. DRY AND PLEASANT WX TONIGHT AND SAT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. A MOISTURE SURGE IS FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TRADE WIND SURGE. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH VCSH
AFFECTING NORTHERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS
BETWEEN FL050-100. AFTER 16Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJPS. EAST WINDS
BELOW FL100 AT 10-18 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS
4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  70  84  72 /  10   0  20  20
STT  85  75  86  74 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190809
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN WEAKEN ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-700 MB TROF CURRENTLY MOVING WWD THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
ENE WINDS. DRY AND PLEASANT WX TONIGHT AND SAT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. A MOISTURE SURGE IS FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TRADE WIND SURGE. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH VCSH
AFFECTING NORTHERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS
BETWEEN FL050-100. AFTER 16Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJPS. EAST WINDS
BELOW FL100 AT 10-18 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS
4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  70  84  72 /  10   0  20  20
STT  85  75  86  74 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190218
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...A MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE MOVED THE
SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIMITING THE ACCUMULATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 19/06Z...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA...RESULTING IN LESS CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER PASSING SHRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS STEERED BY THE
PERSISTENT NE TRADE WIND FLOW. L/LVL WNDS BLO FL200 FM NE BTW 10-15
KTS....THEN BACKING W/HT AND BCMG FM N-NW TO MAX WND OF APPROX 60
KTS FL450. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 W/SOME TCU MAX TOPS 160.
MOSTLY CLR ABV. PASSING SHRA/-RA AND LOW SCUD CLDS MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS TIL 19/13Z...AS WELL
AS PSBL MTN TOP OBSC OVR ERN PR MTN RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 6 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  40  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190218
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...A MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION
HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE MOVED THE
SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS LIMITING THE ACCUMULATIONS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 19/06Z...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA...RESULTING IN LESS CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER PASSING SHRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS STEERED BY THE
PERSISTENT NE TRADE WIND FLOW. L/LVL WNDS BLO FL200 FM NE BTW 10-15
KTS....THEN BACKING W/HT AND BCMG FM N-NW TO MAX WND OF APPROX 60
KTS FL450. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080 W/SOME TCU MAX TOPS 160.
MOSTLY CLR ABV. PASSING SHRA/-RA AND LOW SCUD CLDS MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS TIL 19/13Z...AS WELL
AS PSBL MTN TOP OBSC OVR ERN PR MTN RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 6 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  40  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/11





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...INDUCING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST THE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  82  70  84 /  20  10  10  10
STT  74  86  75  86 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181520
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW TRANSPORTED THESE SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. LATEST TJSJ 18/12Z
SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH BETTER MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS. NO CHANGES NEEDED
TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MOST TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  82  70 /  20  20  10  10
STT  84  76  85  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BOTH
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT CLOUDS
AT FL025/FL060/FL250. NE WINDS 5-10 KT BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY
FLOW ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS TO CONTINUE...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS 5 FEET...2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 180220
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BOTH
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD. SOME VCSH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT TJSJ/TJBQ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT CLOUDS
AT FL025/FL060/FL250. NE WINDS 5-10 KT BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY
FLOW ABV FL200.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS TO CONTINUE...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS 5 FEET...2-4 FEET NEAR SHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171913
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  75  83 /  10  10  10  20
STT  76  85  76  85 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28/WFO MLB





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171446 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014


.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT
BELOW FL050...WITH STRONG W/NW FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  82  75 /  10  10  10  10
STT  84  76  85  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

28






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