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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020936
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO ERODE
SOMEWHAT TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE ALOFT
IS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.THIS IN TURN WILL REINFORCE THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...
AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
ALSO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AND
CONSEQUENTLY INDUCE AN MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DOMINANT
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS STEERED THE CLOUDINESS AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WERE OF SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING
LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE ERODING RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT...THESE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...UNDER
THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAST MOVING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN
WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS OR LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SO FOR NOW...EXPECT INTERVALS OF SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS TJSJ...TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN QUICK PASSING SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT AROUND 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WEST AND
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...STILL EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO GENERATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS WIND DRIVEN
SEA CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  74  84  75 /  30  20  20  20
STT  86  73  85  74 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020936
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO ERODE
SOMEWHAT TODAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE ALOFT
IS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY.THIS IN TURN WILL REINFORCE THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...
AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
ALSO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AND
CONSEQUENTLY INDUCE AN MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
CONTINUED TO BRING PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DOMINANT
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS STEERED THE CLOUDINESS AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WERE OF SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING
LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE ERODING RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT...THESE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...UNDER
THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAST MOVING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN
WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS OR LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SO FOR NOW...EXPECT INTERVALS OF SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS TJSJ...TISX...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN QUICK PASSING SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT AROUND 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WEST AND
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...STILL EXPECT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO GENERATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS WIND DRIVEN
SEA CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  74  84  75 /  30  20  20  20
STT  86  73  85  74 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

72/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020215 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND...AT LEAST FOR NOW...ARE SKIRTING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE ZONES OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS. DISCUSSION BELOW HOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 02/10Z
ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH....AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN WATERS EXPOSED TO
EAST WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT 7-8 FOOT SEAS RETURN BY TUESDAY EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020215 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND...AT LEAST FOR NOW...ARE SKIRTING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE ZONES OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS. DISCUSSION BELOW HOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 02/10Z
ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH....AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN WATERS EXPOSED TO
EAST WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT 7-8 FOOT SEAS RETURN BY TUESDAY EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020215 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND...AT LEAST FOR NOW...ARE SKIRTING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE ZONES OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS. DISCUSSION BELOW HOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 02/10Z
ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH....AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN WATERS EXPOSED TO
EAST WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT 7-8 FOOT SEAS RETURN BY TUESDAY EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

&&

$$

25/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020215 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND...AT LEAST FOR NOW...ARE SKIRTING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE ZONES OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS. DISCUSSION BELOW HOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO E-NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 02/13Z. SCT SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 02/10Z
ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH....AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AFTER 02/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN WATERS EXPOSED TO
EAST WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT 7-8 FOOT SEAS RETURN BY TUESDAY EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  73  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
     NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AST MONDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO
     17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011834
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PRD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PRD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011834
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SW PR.

UNDER AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER
A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS RELOCATES
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PRD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PRD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STEEP WAVES UP TO 7 FEET THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RELAXING SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  86 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011512
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1112 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS WEATHER ANALYSIS STILL IN EFFECT BECAUSE THE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SAME
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TJSJ 01/12Z SOUNDING DATA MEASURED A TPW OF
1.22 IN...INDICATING DRIER THAN NORMAL TPW FOR MARCH.
HOWEVER...SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL
SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND PATCH OF MOISTURE...NOW OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT TO BRING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF PR AND THE USVI. AT THIS MOMENT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PRD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PRD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20KT AND WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WITH CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN ON MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT. HOWEVER...THAT WEAKENING WILL BE OF
SHORT DURATION BECAUSE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING ONE MORE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011512
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1112 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS WEATHER ANALYSIS STILL IN EFFECT BECAUSE THE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SAME
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TJSJ 01/12Z SOUNDING DATA MEASURED A TPW OF
1.22 IN...INDICATING DRIER THAN NORMAL TPW FOR MARCH.
HOWEVER...SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL
SHALLOW TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND PATCH OF MOISTURE...NOW OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT TO BRING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF PR AND THE USVI. AT THIS MOMENT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITE DURG THE ENTIRE PRD...EXCEPT
FOR PASSING -SHRA/SHRA THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BKN
CEILING BTWN FL020-FL060 OVER THE TAF SITES. ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. TONIGHT SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IN/AROUND TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TNCM/TKPK. RECENT 01/12Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WND MAINLY FM E BTW 15-26 KT
AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU FCST PRD. WIND WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON. NO
SIG AVN OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20KT AND WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WITH CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 5-7 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN ON MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT. HOWEVER...THAT WEAKENING WILL BE OF
SHORT DURATION BECAUSE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING ONE MORE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23










000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010941 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010941 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010804
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010246 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A SURPRISING SOUNDING THIS EVENING 01/00Z...WITH 38
KNOTS OF WIND AS LOW AS 2 KFT. A SLIGHT INVERSION AT 1000 MB
PROTECTS THE LOWEST LAYER FROM MUCH OF THE STRONGER VELOCITIES.
ADIABATIC BETWEEN 1200 TO 3200. MOST OF THE PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE
BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...AND THEY ARE LIGHT...IS MOVING INTO SAINT THOMAS FROM
BEEF ISLAND WITH THE CENTER OF THE BAND NEAR SAINT MARTIN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THIS BAND HAVE LESS MOISTURE AND ARE
SPOTTY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE RAISED POPS
ON EAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE LOW SCATTERED CATEGORY...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN IS STILL PASSING OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER AT ABOUT FL050 IMPROVING AFTER
01/06Z...LEAVING SCT CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 01/14Z. ALTHOUGH SOUNDING HAD LLWS FOR AN
INCREASE OF 31 KNOTS FROM THE EAST IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...MOST
FLIGHTS ARE REPORTING LESS WINDS THAN LLWS CRITERIA IN THE LOWEST
2 KFT AND SO WILL NOT BE ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER THAN USUAL AND SO
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER STRONG GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MOVG -SHRA WILL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  30  30  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

25/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  20  20  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
 NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  20  20  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
 NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  20  20  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
 NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ERODE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
WILL QUICKLY ERODE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS PREVAILED
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY.
SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED SO FAR.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S...ALONG WITH A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

UNDER WEAK RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINING UNDER ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE. THEREFORE EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES UNDER EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME AS THIS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU DATA...HAVE EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO 2KFT. AFT 28/22Z WINDS BCMG
ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH STEEP WAVES UP TO 7
FEET THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  85  75  85 /  20  20  20  20
STT  74  85  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY
 NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 10 NM TO 17N- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10
 NM- COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM- MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281518
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WAS DETECTED WITH THE
AVAILABLE RAIN GAUGES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
DRIER AIR MASS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS...AS THIS AIR MASS APPROACH
THE AREA A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
PUSH SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS. AT THIS MOMENT...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU
DATA...HAVE EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO
2KFT...THEN AFT 28/22Z BCMG ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY NETWORK IS MEASURING SEAS UP TO
6 FEET AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY SEAS UP TO 9 FEET. MODERATE TO FRESH
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS TODAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE EXPOSE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN-MON NIGHT BUT REMAINS BREEZY. THE PREV
REASONING REMAIN IN EFFECT...THEREFORE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
MARINE DISCUSSION AND READ THE LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB.
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...WX PATTERN IS ONE OF BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MON-
TUE...MODELS ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
DESTABILIZATION KEEPING PWAT VALUES AOB AN INCH. DRYING
INTENSIFIES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AOA 20-KT NEXT THU WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY.

AVIATION...FAST MVG BUT GENERALLY LGT SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THRU
WEEKEND...A FEW WI POTENTIAL TO PUSH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO SFC. XPCT
VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT EACH CARRIES SLIM CHC OF A GUST TO 30 KT
SPCLLY TODAY. WIND BLW FL150 E 18-30 KT BCMG ENE TONITE-SUNDAY.

MARINE...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN-MON NIGHT BUT REMAINS BREEZY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. SEAS 6-8 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING
5-7 FT SUN-TUE THEN BUILDING AGAIN 6-8 FT WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY...MODELS SHOW
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SIG UPWARD TREND ON 0-2KM RH VALUES AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT IT WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT SUN-TUE AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE ENE OR
NE RESULTING IN GREATER FRICTION AND THUS REDUCED WINDS SPEEDS ON
THE SOUTH COAST MAKING RED FLAG CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY. ADDED
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHES MID NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING INTENSIFYING AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS STRENGTHENING WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  20  20  20  20
STT  85  74  85  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281518
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WAS DETECTED WITH THE
AVAILABLE RAIN GAUGES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
DRIER AIR MASS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS...AS THIS AIR MASS APPROACH
THE AREA A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE TO FRESH AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
PUSH SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS. AT THIS MOMENT...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...IN GENERAL FAST MVG -SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...STRONG WINDS IN/AROUND SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FCST PERIOD. XPCT VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. 28/12Z TSJU
DATA...HAVE EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS UP TO
2KFT...THEN AFT 28/22Z BCMG ENE AT 5 TO 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL NEAR-SHORE BUOY NETWORK IS MEASURING SEAS UP TO
6 FEET AND THE OFFSHORE BUOY SEAS UP TO 9 FEET. MODERATE TO FRESH
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS TODAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE EXPOSE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN-MON NIGHT BUT REMAINS BREEZY. THE PREV
REASONING REMAIN IN EFFECT...THEREFORE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS
MARINE DISCUSSION AND READ THE LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB.
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...WX PATTERN IS ONE OF BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MON-
TUE...MODELS ARE NOW BACKING OFF ON MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
DESTABILIZATION KEEPING PWAT VALUES AOB AN INCH. DRYING
INTENSIFIES LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AOA 20-KT NEXT THU WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY.

AVIATION...FAST MVG BUT GENERALLY LGT SHRA WL CONT AT TIMES THRU
WEEKEND...A FEW WI POTENTIAL TO PUSH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO SFC. XPCT
VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA BUT EACH CARRIES SLIM CHC OF A GUST TO 30 KT
SPCLLY TODAY. WIND BLW FL150 E 18-30 KT BCMG ENE TONITE-SUNDAY.

MARINE...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN-MON NIGHT BUT REMAINS BREEZY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. SEAS 6-8 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING
5-7 FT SUN-TUE THEN BUILDING AGAIN 6-8 FT WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY...MODELS SHOW
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A SIG UPWARD TREND ON 0-2KM RH VALUES AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT IT WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT SUN-TUE AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE ENE OR
NE RESULTING IN GREATER FRICTION AND THUS REDUCED WINDS SPEEDS ON
THE SOUTH COAST MAKING RED FLAG CONDITIONS LESS LIKELY. ADDED
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHES MID NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING INTENSIFYING AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS STRENGTHENING WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  75  84  75 /  20  20  20  20
STT  85  74  85  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

27/23






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