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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200932 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200932 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST ON
TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST
ON TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER
THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEK LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK. GENERALLY GOOD MOISTURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALSO CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN A BOX BOUNDED BY 50
AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE UNTIL THURSDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOOK FOR GENERALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO GENERATED BY THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND ON THE
COASTS AROUND PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO AND SAN JUAN THROUGH FAJARDO
AND YABUCOA. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN PARTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE AROUND 1.7 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND MINUS 5 TO MINUS
6 WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN MUCH THE SAME AREAS AS
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST AND HEAVY RAINS
AT TIMES IN THE WESTERN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME
STREAMERS MAY ALSO BE GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE AT THESE ABUNDANT
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE INTERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND FLOW BEGINS TO VEER DEVELOPING
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAT SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA 2 TO
4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE PEAK OF THE WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD
EXCEPT AS FOLLOWS. PSBL VCSH ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM 20/09Z-20/16Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
8-12 KTS FM THE EAST AFT 20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR.
ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE MORE BURST OF SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST
ON TUESDAY OF UP 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER
THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  30
STT  89  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200348 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1148 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS MOVING ONTO NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND GROWING IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THERE. NO CHANGES TO REST OF
DISCUSSION.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /  30  30   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200348 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1148 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS MOVING ONTO NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND GROWING IN THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THERE. NO CHANGES TO REST OF
DISCUSSION.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /  30  30   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200137
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS MOVED SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN TWO TO THREE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SOME RAPID RISES IN RIVERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
ALONG RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND RIO GUANAJIBO IN HORMIGUEROS. MOST
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-15 KTS FM THE EAST AFTER
20/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR
BETWEEN 20/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELLED AS BUOY 41043 LOCATED
AROUND 180 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN SHOWED SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.
SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/71









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES JUST NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT EAST
NEXT 24 HRS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD
MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF T-STORMS ON MON. NEXT S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PR TUE...HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING ALOFT ARE FCST FOR WED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING.
CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL WED AND THU DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
RISING WED THROUGH SUN WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT THE SFC. WE
COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD.
NORTH SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT A
MIX OF SMALL LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  88 /   0  10   0  10
STT  79  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMP AT 500 MB AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL
INDUCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT MAY HELP TO FORM SMALL HAIL INSIDE OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 17-21Z AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR. E TO
ENE LLVL WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH +TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS ISSUED FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  20  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191612
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1212 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMP AT 500 MB AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL
INDUCED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT MAY HELP TO FORM SMALL HAIL INSIDE OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE...SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN 17-21Z AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR. E TO
ENE LLVL WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH +TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS ISSUED FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  20  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190928 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190928 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED BY OTHER MORE DISTANT
FEATURES. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MID WEEK. LATER THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OUT OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FORM A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OF THE
BEST...THOUGH LIMITED...MOISTURE OF THE WEEK OCCURRING LATER TODAY OVER
PUERTO RICO.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AROUND IN
A BOX BOUNDED BY 50 AND 60 WEST LONGITUDE AND 20 AND 30 NORTH
LATITUDE UNTIL WEEK`S END. OTHERWISE THE LOCAL PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEAKLY HIGHER PRESSURES
TO THE NORTH AND IS LITTLE AFFECTED OTHER MORE DISTANT FEATURES.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVED WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS DID NOT CROSS OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN CROSSING INTO SAINT CROIX
AND SAINT JOHN AROUND 5 AM AST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
MEASURED BY SOUNDERS IN PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX AND MONTSERRAT
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8
INCHES...AND THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE NEEDED
FUEL IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE VALUES TODAY BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 6...INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS MINUS 4 BY WEEKS`S END.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OR DECREASE SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW SUIT...BUT
MOISTURE DROPS OFF ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A DISTINCT
DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RETURN
WHEN...AND ONLY IF...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. PSBL
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TIST/TISX FROM 19/09Z-19/16Z IN SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS FM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AFT 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM YUNQUE
BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS PSBL AT
TJSJ AND TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AS GONZALO RACES AT AN INCREDIBLE SPEED OF 52 MILES
PER HOUR TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS AND MODEST WINDS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT AND BELOW 5 FEET ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  88  77 /  10  20  20  30
STT  89  79  88  77 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN
GENERAL...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-13 KTS FM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AFTER 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE
OF PR BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...BUYO 41043 OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELLS OF AROUND 8 FEET. THESE SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/71





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190247
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. IN
GENERAL...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING 8-13 KTS FM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AFTER 19/13Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE
OF PR BETWEEN 19/18-22Z CREATING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MTN
OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ. ALSO...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND
TJPS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...BUYO 41043 OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELLS OF AROUND 8 FEET. THESE SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

13/71






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTH
AMERICA WILL MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE AREA AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR.

WED ON...MODELS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
DRYING AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
EXPECT THINGS TO REALLY DRY OUT WED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE TSRA AT JBQ AND JMZ NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS NEXT FIVE DAYS. SEAS 5-7 FT
TODAY IN NE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  10  10   0  10
STT  77  88  79  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181550
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF
PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN
17-21Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WEST INTERIOR AND SW
PR. LIGHT LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043...180 NM MILES NNE OF PR...HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NNW SWELLS OF 7-9 FT. SOME ENERGY OF THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL THIS EVENING DUE TO NNE SWELLS
OF AROUND 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND BETWEEN
HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EAST OF WASHINGTON DC AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS
FORMED BUT HAD NOT YET PENETRATED ONSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AGAIN FORECAST SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST...HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER FORMATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO ALSO FORM IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING. SEA BREEZES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE
FLOW TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
COOLER...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES FORMING AFTER 18/14Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 18/18-23Z
CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT
TJMZ.

MARINE...SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THEN...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL ALSO ALLOW
SEAS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  78 /   0  20  20  30
STT  82  77  88  79 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181550
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF
PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN
17-21Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WEST INTERIOR AND SW
PR. LIGHT LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043...180 NM MILES NNE OF PR...HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NNW SWELLS OF 7-9 FT. SOME ENERGY OF THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL THIS EVENING DUE TO NNE SWELLS
OF AROUND 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND BETWEEN
HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EAST OF WASHINGTON DC AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS
FORMED BUT HAD NOT YET PENETRATED ONSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AGAIN FORECAST SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST...HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER FORMATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO ALSO FORM IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING. SEA BREEZES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE
FLOW TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
COOLER...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES FORMING AFTER 18/14Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 18/18-23Z
CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT
TJMZ.

MARINE...SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THEN...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL ALSO ALLOW
SEAS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  78 /   0  20  20  30
STT  82  77  88  79 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181550
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF
PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...BETWEEN
17-21Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER WEST INTERIOR AND SW
PR. LIGHT LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043...180 NM MILES NNE OF PR...HAVE BEEN SHOWING
NNW SWELLS OF 7-9 FT. SOME ENERGY OF THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ 710 UNTIL THIS EVENING DUE TO NNE SWELLS
OF AROUND 7 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND BETWEEN
HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EAST OF WASHINGTON DC AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT WILL LAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT. SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS
FORMED BUT HAD NOT YET PENETRATED ONSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. VERY FEW
SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
AGAIN FORECAST SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST...HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER FORMATION BACK TO THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO ALSO FORM IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PERCENTAGE OF
SHOWERS WITH LIGHTNING. SEA BREEZES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE
FLOW TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
COOLER...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER ON TUESDAY AFTER AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN CHARACTERIZE THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOT SEA BREEZES FORMING AFTER 18/14Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR BETWEEN 18/18-23Z
CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT
TJMZ.

MARINE...SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THEN...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL ALSO ALLOW
SEAS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  78 /   0  20  20  30
STT  82  77  88  79 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

11/64





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