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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010155
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST 01/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES THRU THE PD...WITH VCSH AT TJSJ
AND TIST OVRNGHT. WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU AT LEAST
01/11Z...BCMG E-NE 10-20 KTS ON LABOR DAY...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CWA IN SPITE OF DECREASING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED OFF TO ABOUT 45 MM (1.77
IN.) AT USVI WITH STILL 48 MM (1.9 IN.) OVER WEST PR. SO NOT A LOT
OF GRADIENT HERE SO NO DRAMATIC DECREASE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER RADAR
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED ON THE
SURROUNDING WATERS SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN PR THEY ARE FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON
SAT. BY 06Z TONIGHT GFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DROP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ABOVE 850 MB.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT SINCE BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL STRADLE THE
BOUNDARIES BUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED CLOSER TO LAND
WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THRU TUE MORNING THEN A REMNANT
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE ITSELF LOOKS NEARLY
FLAT BUT THE MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER. GFS EXPECTS 700 MB
THETA-E TO BE AROUND 331K...CLOSE TO TODAYS VALUE FOR WEST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
PR AFTER THRU 31/21Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER QUIET AND MODELS DO NOT INCREASE
WIND OR SEAS VERY MUCH ALL WEEK. GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON WED LEADING TO A MINOR RISE IN
WINDS AND SEAS (NO MORE THAN 6 FT) BUT THEN BOTH DROP OFF AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE GREATLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
STT  78  90  80  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311521
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE USVI AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RESULTING
IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM OF USVI/PR. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO
FL150. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 14-18KT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PR BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311521
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE USVI AS WELL AS THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...RESULTING
IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM OF USVI/PR. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT TJMZ
WHERE MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FM SFC TO
FL150. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LIKELY ACROSS WEST/INTERIOR PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 14-18KT CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PR BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  30  30  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
MOVES WESTWARD. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LCL TAF SITES...MOSTLY PASSING -SHRA/SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SCT-BKN LOW CLDS BTW
FL020-FL100...SCT-BKN HI CLDS FL200 MAINLY W-NW OF PR. L/LVL WNDS
MAINLY FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100...BCMG S-SW 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.
AFT 31/17Z TYPICAL SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CTRL AND W PR NR
TJMZ AND TJBQ...FEW -SHRA/SHRA VCTY REST OF TAF SITES TIL 31/22Z. NO
OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  89  79 /  30  30  30  30
STT  88  78  90  80 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310213
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXPCT PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...BRUSHING THE COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100 TIL AT LEAST 31/14Z...BCMG E-NE
10-20 KTS ON SUNDAY...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TYPICAL SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER 31/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310213
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS...AS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES...EXPCT PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...BRUSHING THE COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 5-15 KTS UP FL100 TIL AT LEAST 31/14Z...BCMG E-NE
10-20 KTS ON SUNDAY...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. TYPICAL SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER 31/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/71







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
CURRENTLY AND EXPECT A LITTLE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THEY WILL BEHAVE THEMSELVES
AND EVEN DECREASE BEFORE 5PM AS THE CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING QUITE
EXPANSIVE...CUTTING OFF THE SOURCE OF HEAT.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CREEP WEST
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. SO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
ALREADY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NO LONGER HELP IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER TODAY.

DRY ADVECTION TO KICK IN SUNDAY THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN ISLAND TO TYPICAL FAR WEST PR SHOWERS/THUNDER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EXTREMELY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TUE BUT
WITHOUT MUCH WAVE DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF NOTE TO ONE CURRENTLY HANGING BACK AT 30W
WHICH GFS EXPECTS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI. IT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE
ON SATELLITE AND LIMITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND W PR AFTER THRU 21Z...W/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ. VCTS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS/TJBQ AND VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEN...PASSING
-SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE 10-20 KTS UP FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 4 FT OR LESS AT BUOYS THOUGH WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE WINDS HAS KICKED UP TODAY. BUT 5 FT APPEARS THE LIMIT IN
SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  79  89 /  40  30  30  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301538
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING CAME IN FAIRLY WET AND UNSTABLE
WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30. BLENDED PWAT
ANALYSIS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE
COAST...RESULTING IN BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR
AT MID-LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...LIKELY IN AND AROUND TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJPS. TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED BTWN 18-21Z.
LLVL EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
NEAR TSRA WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND WINDS OF 12-17 KT CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO ADVISORY OR PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE LABOR WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/54





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300827 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300827 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARD TIL
30/14Z. SFC WINDS LGT AND VRB AT LCL TAF SITES TIL AT LEAST
30/14Z...BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FCST ACROSS CENTRAL AND W PR AFTER
30/17Z...W/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ PSBL. L/LVL WNDS FM E-NE
5-15 KTS UP FL150 BCMG FM SW AT 10-20 KTS UP TO FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300818
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION AND REMAINS AS THE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES
WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNDER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...MOST AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
FEW DAYS...AS THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...MOVES FURTHER
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 55 WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...INDUCING A
MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS WHILE THE USVI/BVI SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 30/13Z. NMRS SHRA ISOLD/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER
30/18Z...TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION A GENERALLY QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  76  88  78 /  50  40  30  40
STT  88  78  89  79 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72






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