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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HISTORY OF GFS IS THAT IT HASN/T HANDLED THE HIGH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING SO NOW AND 12Z TJSJ EVEN ARRIVED WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN GFS EXPECTED WHERE SHALLOW WAS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. BUT SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE WELL TOWARDS THE SOUTH CURRENTLY AND
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA INCR IN AFT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS XPTD EARLIER.
VFR THRU MUCH OF AFT THEN IFR/MVFR DVLG IN SHRA WI AREAS OBSCD
MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH COAST WHILE WINDS WILL
KICK UP. INCREASING SHOWERS AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/10






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241345
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...HISTORY OF GFS IS THAT IT HASN/T HANDLED THE HIGH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE DOING SO NOW AND 12Z TJSJ EVEN ARRIVED WITH A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE THAN GFS EXPECTED WHERE SHALLOW WAS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. BUT SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE WELL TOWARDS THE SOUTH CURRENTLY AND
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA INCR IN AFT BUT NOT AS MUCH AS XPTD EARLIER.
VFR THRU MUCH OF AFT THEN IFR/MVFR DVLG IN SHRA WI AREAS OBSCD
MTNS.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL INTO 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH COAST WHILE WINDS WILL
KICK UP. INCREASING SHOWERS AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  30  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

54/10





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER ASCAT
PASSES...AND A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH OR SO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
ALL SUGGESTED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CROSSING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECT
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND STILL SUGGEST
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS AS THE WAVE EXITS
THE REGION AND AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THAT SAID...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH STILL CALLED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
TRAIL THE WAVE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL CREATE ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SQUALLS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  50  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240946
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER ASCAT
PASSES...AND A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SUGGESTS THAT THE
WAVE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
MPH OR SO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR...AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
ALL SUGGESTED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CROSSING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS QUICKLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECT
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND STILL SUGGEST
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS AS THE WAVE EXITS
THE REGION AND AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND HIGH CONCENTRATION
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THAT SAID...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH STILL CALLED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
TRAIL THE WAVE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL CREATE ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
WATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...THE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SQUALLS LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  50  40  40  30
STT  90  80  88  80 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY
     FOR MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

71/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING...
DEPICTED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER DEPRESSION TWO...JUST NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT
PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
-SHRA AT TJSJ...TIST...TKPK AND TNCM THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFTER
24/12Z...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK...TIST...
TISX...TJSJ...TJPS. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 24/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO BOOST SEAS
TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THURSDAY. GFS
MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECTS FOR CARIBBEAN
WATERS TOMORROW THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

05/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240223
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS EVENING. A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING...
DEPICTED A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER DEPRESSION TWO...JUST NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT
PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
-SHRA AT TJSJ...TIST...TKPK AND TNCM THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFTER
24/12Z...AFFECTING ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TNCM...TKPK...TIST...
TISX...TJSJ...TJPS. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR
AFTER 24/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO BOOST SEAS
TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THURSDAY. GFS
MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECTS FOR CARIBBEAN
WATERS TOMORROW THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM AST FRIDAY FOR
     MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

05/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OV W PR WL DECR LATE AFT BUT IFR A THREAT AT
TJMZ FOR NXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTW ISOLD SHRA THRUOUT AREA INTO
TONITE. SHRA/TSRA INCR ON THU FM TROPICAL WV ALG WI IFR/MVFR ALL
TAF SITES AND OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT INCR 20-30 KT
LATE TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BRING
THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WHICH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST SEAS TO 7 FT OR SO ON THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE
FRI. GFS MAINTAINS STRENGTH OF THE WAVE WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF ST.
CROIX AND PR ON THU. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
CARIBBEAN WATERS TOMORROW IF THIS APPEARS LIKELY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CONVECTION AT LEAST SEEMS A GOOD BET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  90 /  40  50  40  40
STT  81  91  80  91 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  30
STT  90  80  90  81 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/09





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  30
STT  90  80  90  81 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/09






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230201
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION TONIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 PM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 N...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF SHRA
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST AND NCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230201
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS EVENING DEPICTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION TONIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 PM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 N...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF SHRA
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST AND NCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
REMAINS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH SOME OF THEM PERSISTING OVER SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO.
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE
TODAY UNTIL THURSDAY CAUSING HAZY SKIES AND KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 1100 AM AST...THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 N...LONGITUDE 48.0
WEST...MOVING WEST NEAR 17 MPH. A SLOW WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AS THIS FEATURE WILL ENTER A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRESENT
SCENARIO...SHOULD THEREFORE INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THEREFORE
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

EVEN IF IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS MAY
START AFFECTING THE USVI THEN FRIDAY MORNING STARTING ACROSS PR.
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT AT THIS TIME THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN USVI AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN
ELSEWHERE...BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING L/LVL CLD LYRA BTW FL025-FL080 AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL MOV ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR
TJPS TIL AT LEAST 22/22Z. SCT SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED OVR W PR
DURG AFT TIL 22/22Z WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR/MVFR DUE TO SHRA/LOW
CIG. WIND BLO FL200 FM SE BTW 15-25 KT BCMG E LATER TONITE AND WED
AM. RECENT LOCAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS SUGGEST PSBL FAIR WX WATERSPOUTS
WITH PREVAILING SE STREAMER WND FLOW TIL AT LEAST 22/23Z...MAINLY
BTW ERN PR AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  20  20  10  10
STT  80  90  80  91 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25






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