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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  40  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  40  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020120
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THE NEAR ABSENCE OF SAHARAN
AIR AS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A LITTLE LESS ENHANCEMENT IN THOSE SHOWERS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON SATELLITE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE NO SAHARAN AIR IS INHIBITING
THEIR DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
FOR ALL BUT SW PR AND DOWNWIND OF THE ISLAND TOWARDS SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL SO DO NOT SEE
SIGNFICANT RAINFALL COMING TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE LINGERS FOR WESTERN PR. THE BEST MOISTURE...CURRENTLY
HANGING EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND JUST ARRIVING INTO LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
ARRIVE USVI BY EARLY SUNDAY EVE. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TOWARDS
THE WEST OF PR BEFORE DAYTIME HEAT ON MONDAY CAN PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VRY BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA TONITE BUT OVERALL VFR
CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 ENE- NE 15-25 KT TONITE BCMG
E BY MORNING THEN SE LATE AFT...INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO
20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES MADE AS MODERATE TRADES PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  40  40  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020120
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THE NEAR ABSENCE OF SAHARAN
AIR AS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A LITTLE LESS ENHANCEMENT IN THOSE SHOWERS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON SATELLITE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE NO SAHARAN AIR IS INHIBITING
THEIR DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
FOR ALL BUT SW PR AND DOWNWIND OF THE ISLAND TOWARDS SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL SO DO NOT SEE
SIGNFICANT RAINFALL COMING TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE LINGERS FOR WESTERN PR. THE BEST MOISTURE...CURRENTLY
HANGING EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND JUST ARRIVING INTO LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
ARRIVE USVI BY EARLY SUNDAY EVE. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TOWARDS
THE WEST OF PR BEFORE DAYTIME HEAT ON MONDAY CAN PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VRY BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA TONITE BUT OVERALL VFR
CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 ENE- NE 15-25 KT TONITE BCMG
E BY MORNING THEN SE LATE AFT...INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO
20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES MADE AS MODERATE TRADES PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  40  40  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020120
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
920 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THE NEAR ABSENCE OF SAHARAN
AIR AS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A LITTLE LESS ENHANCEMENT IN THOSE SHOWERS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON SATELLITE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE NO SAHARAN AIR IS INHIBITING
THEIR DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL INCREASE THEIR COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
FOR ALL BUT SW PR AND DOWNWIND OF THE ISLAND TOWARDS SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL SO DO NOT SEE
SIGNFICANT RAINFALL COMING TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE LINGERS FOR WESTERN PR. THE BEST MOISTURE...CURRENTLY
HANGING EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND JUST ARRIVING INTO LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
ARRIVE USVI BY EARLY SUNDAY EVE. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT TOWARDS
THE WEST OF PR BEFORE DAYTIME HEAT ON MONDAY CAN PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VRY BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA TONITE BUT OVERALL VFR
CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 ENE- NE 15-25 KT TONITE BCMG
E BY MORNING THEN SE LATE AFT...INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO
20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES MADE AS MODERATE TRADES PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.

MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  40  40  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/54



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/13



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ.  FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  89  79  90 /  20  20  40  40
STT  78  89  80  89 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  10  20  20  40
STT  90  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  10  20  20  40
STT  90  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  10  20  20  40
STT  90  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010918
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  89  80 /  10  20  20  40
STT  90  78  89  81 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010215
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS A DRY AIR MASS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
LIMITING EVEN MORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS THE LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA THIS
WEEKEND...MOVING SOUTH BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AIR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH SAHARAN DUST AND A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE.

DISCUSSION...MANY SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SOME
RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR RECEIVING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF BUT NW-PR RECEIVED
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING
WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. THE
DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH SINCE WE DO HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...THIS WAVE SHOULD
PASS QUICKLY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING BUT
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE. PASSING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONT ACROSS N CTRL AND W PR TIL
31/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
AND VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ. MAX TOPS W/TSRA BTW 450-500...MTN TOP OBSCR
PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR PR.  FEW CU/TCU EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA...TOPS 160. ISLD TSRA ALSO
PSBL OVR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PR TIL 31/22Z. SFC WND
FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25 KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS
AFT 22Z. L/LVL WND FM E 15-20 KTS BLO 150 BCM LGT/VRB ABV.

MARINE...SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  89 /  40  10  20  20
STT  79  89  78  89 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA THIS
WEEKEND...MOVING SOUTH BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AIR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH SAHARAN DUST AND A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SOME
RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR RECEIVING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF BUT NW-PR RECEIVED
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING
WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. THE
DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH SINCE WE DO HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...THIS WAVE SHOULD
PASS QUICKLY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING BUT
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE. PASSING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONT ACROSS N CTRL AND W PR TIL
31/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
AND VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ. MAX TOPS W/TSRA BTW 450-500...MTN TOP OBSCR
PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR PR.  FEW CU/TCU EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA...TOPS 160. ISLD TSRA ALSO
PSBL OVR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PR TIL 31/22Z. SFC WND
FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25 KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS
AFT 22Z. L/LVL WND FM E 15-20 KTS BLO 150 BCM LGT/VRB ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  89 /  40  20  20  20
STT  79  89  78  89 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVING
IN. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA THIS
WEEKEND...MOVING SOUTH BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AIR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH SAHARAN DUST AND A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SOME
RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR RECEIVING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF BUT NW-PR RECEIVED
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING
WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. THE
DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH SINCE WE DO HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...THIS WAVE SHOULD
PASS QUICKLY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING BUT
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE. PASSING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONT ACROSS N CTRL AND W PR TIL
31/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR
AND VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ. MAX TOPS W/TSRA BTW 450-500...MTN TOP OBSCR
PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR PR.  FEW CU/TCU EN
ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA...TOPS 160. ISLD TSRA ALSO
PSBL OVR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PR TIL 31/22Z. SFC WND
FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25 KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS
AFT 22Z. L/LVL WND FM E 15-20 KTS BLO 150 BCM LGT/VRB ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  89 /  40  20  20  20
STT  79  89  78  89 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25



000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311546
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONSAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL CALLING FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY MONDAY BUT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL AGAIN BE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MAY AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LATER UPDATE
FORECAST PACKAGE IF NEEDED BY THEN.

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR AT TAF SITES...NO SIG CHG TO PREV
AVN FCST DISCUSSION...SCT-BKN CU/SC CLD LYRS 020...060...AND
160...FEW TCU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS WITH PASSING
SHRA...TOPS 160...ISLD TSRA OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY N AND S OF PR TIL 31/21Z. AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR W AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR 31/17Z-31/22Z. MAX TOPS W/TSTMS...NR
450...MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSTM ACTVTY OVR
PR. SFC WND FROM E BUT WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AREAS...W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS PSBL. L/LVL WND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS
BLO FL150... DECR WITH HT ABV TO 5-15 KTS AND FM S-SW.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...RECENT BUOY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS
SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...AND SEAS 2-5 FEET...OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 6 FEET IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  79 /  40  40  20  20
STT  89  79  89  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25




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