Home > Products > State Listing > Puerto Rico Data
Latest:
 AFDSJU |
  [top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290049 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY SAT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS LATE
SAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 36
HRS AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH OF LOW PRES. HOWEVER
IS NOT REALLY UNTIL FRI THAT MOISTURE IS AT ITS MAXIMUM AND
INSTABILITY THE GREATEST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL FRI. SO BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE NMRS CVRG FOR THU.
UNSETTLED WX REMAINS THROUGH SAT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
BREEZY AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WHILE SCT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON OVER SW
PR...THESE ARE LIKELY TO MISS THE AIRPORTS. UNSETTLED WX FRI AND
SAT WITH SCT T-STORMS AFFECTING WRN PR TERMINALS.

&&

. MARINE...NW SWELLS AFFECTING ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT. ISSUED SCA EARLIER BASED ON
SWELL DECAY FROM BUOY 41046. THE PEAK SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING THEN SWELLS SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PULSES OF NNW
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS STRENGTHEN SUN
INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  86  75  86 /  10  50  50  50
STT  76  78  77  83 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

27/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290049 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY SAT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS LATE
SAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 36
HRS AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH OF LOW PRES. HOWEVER
IS NOT REALLY UNTIL FRI THAT MOISTURE IS AT ITS MAXIMUM AND
INSTABILITY THE GREATEST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL FRI. SO BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE NMRS CVRG FOR THU.
UNSETTLED WX REMAINS THROUGH SAT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
BREEZY AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WHILE SCT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON OVER SW
PR...THESE ARE LIKELY TO MISS THE AIRPORTS. UNSETTLED WX FRI AND
SAT WITH SCT T-STORMS AFFECTING WRN PR TERMINALS.

&&

. MARINE...NW SWELLS AFFECTING ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT. ISSUED SCA EARLIER BASED ON
SWELL DECAY FROM BUOY 41046. THE PEAK SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING THEN SWELLS SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PULSES OF NNW
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS STRENGTHEN SUN
INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  86  75  86 /  10  50  50  50
STT  76  78  77  83 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

27/64








000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290049 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH EARLY SAT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS LATE
SAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 36
HRS AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH OF LOW PRES. HOWEVER
IS NOT REALLY UNTIL FRI THAT MOISTURE IS AT ITS MAXIMUM AND
INSTABILITY THE GREATEST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
T-STORMS THU AFTERNOON THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL FRI. SO BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE NMRS CVRG FOR THU.
UNSETTLED WX REMAINS THROUGH SAT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENING SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
BREEZY AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WHILE SCT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON OVER SW
PR...THESE ARE LIKELY TO MISS THE AIRPORTS. UNSETTLED WX FRI AND
SAT WITH SCT T-STORMS AFFECTING WRN PR TERMINALS.

&&

. MARINE...NW SWELLS AFFECTING ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT. ISSUED SCA EARLIER BASED ON
SWELL DECAY FROM BUOY 41046. THE PEAK SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING THEN SWELLS SUBSIDING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PULSES OF NNW
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS STRENGTHEN SUN
INTO MON WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  86  75  86 /  10  50  50  50
STT  76  78  77  83 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

27/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A JET MAX OF OVER 85 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREATER
ANITLLES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO VERY MODEST LEVELS ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SHEAR-LINE COMBINATION SITTING OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME MORE EAST WEST AROUND 20 DEGREES NORTH LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND MONDAY ON TRADE WIND FLOW...DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING AT 28/12Z CAME IN WITH ONLY
1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB. CLOUDS THAT DID DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOUND THIS LAYER NEARLY
IMPENETRABLE SO THAT VERY FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT COUNTING FROM MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WESTERN TIP OF SAINT
CROIX...UNTIL 11 AM AST. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST EAST OF SAINT MARTIN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AROUND 08-10Z. SINCE MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THIS IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO YIELD LIGHT AMOUNTS...AND MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE
TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN AS HEATING CONTINUES DURING THE
DAY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN INTERIOR FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LIKELY SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...
FIRST ON THE NORTHERN COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN IN MUCH
THE SAME PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
THE GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT
MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA STILL POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 28/22Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. ESE WINDS
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 29/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL OF 10 FEET HAVE BEEN NOTED AT BUOY 41046 TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS SOME 2-3 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH
WAS FORECASTING. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING AT LEAST 6 FOOT SEAS
TONIGHT IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY 7 FEET BY TOMORROW AT
BUOY 41043 WHICH HAS SHOWN A RAPID RISE TO 6.4 FEET IN THE LAST 6
HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT 7 FOOT SEAS
COULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA`S ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW IF SWELL
CROSSING THROUGH BUOY 41046 TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES HERE. WILL
ADVISE NEXT SHIFT TO BE ALERT TO UPDATING FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  86 /  40  40  50  50
STT  77  84  77  83 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281910
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A JET MAX OF OVER 85 KNOTS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THIS WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREATER
ANITLLES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO VERY MODEST LEVELS ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SHEAR-LINE COMBINATION SITTING OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME MORE EAST WEST AROUND 20 DEGREES NORTH LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND MONDAY ON TRADE WIND FLOW...DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING AT 28/12Z CAME IN WITH ONLY
1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 700 MB. CLOUDS THAT DID DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOUND THIS LAYER NEARLY
IMPENETRABLE SO THAT VERY FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS OF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT COUNTING FROM MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WESTERN TIP OF SAINT
CROIX...UNTIL 11 AM AST. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST EAST OF SAINT MARTIN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AROUND 08-10Z. SINCE MID LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...THIS IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO YIELD LIGHT AMOUNTS...AND MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE
TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN AS HEATING CONTINUES DURING THE
DAY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN INTERIOR FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LIKELY SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...
FIRST ON THE NORTHERN COASTS DURING THE MORNING AND THEN IN MUCH
THE SAME PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
THE GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED BY LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE AT
MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA STILL POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 28/22Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. ESE WINDS
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 29/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL OF 10 FEET HAVE BEEN NOTED AT BUOY 41046 TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS SOME 2-3 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH
WAS FORECASTING. THEREFORE AM EXPECTING AT LEAST 6 FOOT SEAS
TONIGHT IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND POSSIBLY 7 FEET BY TOMORROW AT
BUOY 41043 WHICH HAS SHOWN A RAPID RISE TO 6.4 FEET IN THE LAST 6
HOURS. MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY THAT 7 FOOT SEAS
COULD ENTER THE FORECAST AREA`S ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW IF SWELL
CROSSING THROUGH BUOY 41046 TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES HERE. WILL
ADVISE NEXT SHIFT TO BE ALERT TO UPDATING FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  75  86 /  40  40  50  50
STT  77  84  77  83 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1116 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR. MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.


&&


.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17-23Z CAUSING
AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&


.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1116 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR. MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.


&&


.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17-23Z CAUSING
AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&


.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280935 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280917
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO UNDER
WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

PREVAILING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. OVERALL...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/25





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280917
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO UNDER
WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

PREVAILING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS
SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. OVERALL...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17Z-
28/23Z CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/25






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280133 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES COUPLED WITH WET SOILS FROM SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY
LATE WED INTO THU AS HEIGHT FALLS PROMOTE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS. APPROACHING SHEAR LINE ON THU
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR AS STEERING
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST ALBEIT WEAK. VERY COLD H5 TEMPS OF
-10C AND MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FRI WILL AUGMENT/ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
HAIL FORMATION IN T-STORMS FRI. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS SAT AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS/STRENGTHENS SFC AND ALOFT. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS WITH FIRE RISK INCREASING FOR AREAS
THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINS THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA WITH CLOUDINESS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER/VCNTY OF JBQ/JMZ/JPS AT LEAST UNTIL 28/03Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFT 28/14Z E TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW 15 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  77  83  74  84 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280133 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES COUPLED WITH WET SOILS FROM SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY
LATE WED INTO THU AS HEIGHT FALLS PROMOTE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS. APPROACHING SHEAR LINE ON THU
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR AS STEERING
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST ALBEIT WEAK. VERY COLD H5 TEMPS OF
-10C AND MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FRI WILL AUGMENT/ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
HAIL FORMATION IN T-STORMS FRI. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS SAT AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS/STRENGTHENS SFC AND ALOFT. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS WITH FIRE RISK INCREASING FOR AREAS
THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINS THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA WITH CLOUDINESS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER/VCNTY OF JBQ/JMZ/JPS AT LEAST UNTIL 28/03Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFT 28/14Z E TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW 15 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  77  83  74  84 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280133 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES COUPLED WITH WET SOILS FROM SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY
LATE WED INTO THU AS HEIGHT FALLS PROMOTE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS. APPROACHING SHEAR LINE ON THU
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR AS STEERING
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST ALBEIT WEAK. VERY COLD H5 TEMPS OF
-10C AND MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FRI WILL AUGMENT/ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
HAIL FORMATION IN T-STORMS FRI. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS SAT AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS/STRENGTHENS SFC AND ALOFT. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS WITH FIRE RISK INCREASING FOR AREAS
THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINS THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA WITH CLOUDINESS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER/VCNTY OF JBQ/JMZ/JPS AT LEAST UNTIL 28/03Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFT 28/14Z E TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW 15 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  77  83  74  84 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280133 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES COUPLED WITH WET SOILS FROM SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG OVER VALLEYS. MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY
LATE WED INTO THU AS HEIGHT FALLS PROMOTE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS. APPROACHING SHEAR LINE ON THU
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR AS STEERING
WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST ALBEIT WEAK. VERY COLD H5 TEMPS OF
-10C AND MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FRI WILL AUGMENT/ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
HAIL FORMATION IN T-STORMS FRI. SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS SAT AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGE BUILDS/STRENGTHENS SFC AND ALOFT. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS WITH FIRE RISK INCREASING FOR AREAS
THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINS THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA WITH CLOUDINESS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER/VCNTY OF JBQ/JMZ/JPS AT LEAST UNTIL 28/03Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFT 28/14Z E TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW 15 KT THROUGH SAT THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT
ALL OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  77  83  74  84 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A SUB TROPICAL JET PASSES OVER
OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANITLLES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT 700 MB THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE DEEP LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH WIND AND SNOW
TO NEW ENGLAND HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AND
THAT WILL PASS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
HAITI WILL NOT PASS OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AND FRIDAY. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER WITH MODEST MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
WIDE AREA...BUT MAINLY WEST OF SAINT THOMAS ANS SAINT CROIX. A
BAND OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRAJECTORY
WITH MUCH THE SAME RESULT. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND...COUPLED WITH THE
JET ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE SHEAR-LINE FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER THE AREA. BUT...AS THE
WEAK RIDGE TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS FARTHER THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
MORE. FINALLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE PASSING
SHOWERS...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RECEIVES MORE SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z
AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. BKN-OVC LAYER ABOVE FL100 OVER WESTERN
PR...SOME CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU TONIGHT. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 2
FEBRUARY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A SUB TROPICAL JET PASSES OVER
OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANITLLES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT 700 MB THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE DEEP LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH WIND AND SNOW
TO NEW ENGLAND HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AND
THAT WILL PASS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
HAITI WILL NOT PASS OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AND FRIDAY. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER WITH MODEST MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
WIDE AREA...BUT MAINLY WEST OF SAINT THOMAS ANS SAINT CROIX. A
BAND OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRAJECTORY
WITH MUCH THE SAME RESULT. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND...COUPLED WITH THE
JET ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE SHEAR-LINE FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER THE AREA. BUT...AS THE
WEAK RIDGE TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS FARTHER THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
MORE. FINALLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE PASSING
SHOWERS...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RECEIVES MORE SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z
AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. BKN-OVC LAYER ABOVE FL100 OVER WESTERN
PR...SOME CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU TONIGHT. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 2
FEBRUARY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A SUB TROPICAL JET PASSES OVER
OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANITLLES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT 700 MB THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE DEEP LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH WIND AND SNOW
TO NEW ENGLAND HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AND
THAT WILL PASS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
HAITI WILL NOT PASS OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AND FRIDAY. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER WITH MODEST MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
WIDE AREA...BUT MAINLY WEST OF SAINT THOMAS ANS SAINT CROIX. A
BAND OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRAJECTORY
WITH MUCH THE SAME RESULT. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND...COUPLED WITH THE
JET ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE SHEAR-LINE FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER THE AREA. BUT...AS THE
WEAK RIDGE TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS FARTHER THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
MORE. FINALLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE PASSING
SHOWERS...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RECEIVES MORE SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z
AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. BKN-OVC LAYER ABOVE FL100 OVER WESTERN
PR...SOME CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU TONIGHT. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 2
FEBRUARY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271857
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A SUB TROPICAL JET PASSES OVER
OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANITLLES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT 700 MB THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE DEEP LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH WIND AND SNOW
TO NEW ENGLAND HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AND
THAT WILL PASS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
HAITI WILL NOT PASS OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AND FRIDAY. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER WITH MODEST MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
WIDE AREA...BUT MAINLY WEST OF SAINT THOMAS ANS SAINT CROIX. A
BAND OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRAJECTORY
WITH MUCH THE SAME RESULT. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND...COUPLED WITH THE
JET ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE SHEAR-LINE FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER THE AREA. BUT...AS THE
WEAK RIDGE TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS FARTHER THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
MORE. FINALLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE PASSING
SHOWERS...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RECEIVES MORE SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z
AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. BKN-OVC LAYER ABOVE FL100 OVER WESTERN
PR...SOME CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU TONIGHT. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 2
FEBRUARY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  73  86  73  85 /  10  40  40  40
STT  74  83  74  84 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271515
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17-22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ
IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-3 FEET
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271515
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17-22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ
IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-3 FEET
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271515
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17-22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ
IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-3 FEET
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 271515
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17-22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ
IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-3 FEET
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 270930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  86  73 /  20  10  40  40
STT  84  75  83  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities