Home > Products > State Listing > Puerto Rico Data
Latest:
 AFDSJU |
  [top]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
824 PM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE REGION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAD FINALLY MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...EASTERN AND SOUTH PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
HAITI AND LAS BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 06/16 AND 06/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 06/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH INDUCING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EL YUNQUE AREA AND
SOME MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL PROMOTE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY UNDER
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE USVI/SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
EACH NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER FROM THE
WEST...INCREASING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
IN TURN WILL FAVOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RANGED AND THE NORTHERN AREAS OF PR. AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH...SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THIS IN TURN CAN KEEP TEMPS AT NORMAL LEVELS...AND
ALSO OFFSET THE TIME OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURG PRD. SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYR FL025...050. AT LEAST UNTIL 05/23Z
VCSH/PSBL ISOLD MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
STEER NORTHWEST IN THE VCNTY OF/OR ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...TJMZ.  SHRA
VCTY OF TISX...TIST...TNCM TIL 05/23Z.  SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AROUND 5-
15 KTS TIL 05/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  40  10  50
STT  79  86  79  86 /  30  30  10  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060024
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
824 PM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE REGION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAD FINALLY MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...EASTERN AND SOUTH PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
HAITI AND LAS BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 06/16 AND 06/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 06/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH INDUCING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EL YUNQUE AREA AND
SOME MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL PROMOTE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY UNDER
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE USVI/SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
EACH NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER FROM THE
WEST...INCREASING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
IN TURN WILL FAVOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RANGED AND THE NORTHERN AREAS OF PR. AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH...SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THIS IN TURN CAN KEEP TEMPS AT NORMAL LEVELS...AND
ALSO OFFSET THE TIME OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURG PRD. SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYR FL025...050. AT LEAST UNTIL 05/23Z
VCSH/PSBL ISOLD MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
STEER NORTHWEST IN THE VCNTY OF/OR ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...TJMZ.  SHRA
VCTY OF TISX...TIST...TNCM TIL 05/23Z.  SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AROUND 5-
15 KTS TIL 05/23Z.

MARINE...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  40  10  50
STT  79  86  79  86 /  30  30  10  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/72




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH INDUCING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EL YUNQUE AREA AND
SOME MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL PROMOTE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY UNDER
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE USVI/SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
EACH NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER FROM THE
WEST...INCREASING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
IN TURN WILL FAVOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RANGED AND THE NORTHERN AREAS OF PR. AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH...SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THIS IN TURN CAN KEEP TEMPS AT NORMAL LEVELS...AND
ALSO OFFSET THE TIME OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURG PRD. SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYR FL025...050. AT LEAST UNTIL 05/23Z
VCSH/PSBL ISOLD MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
STEER NORTHWEST IN THE VCNTY OF/OR ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...TJMZ.  SHRA
VCTY OF TISX...TIST...TNCM TIL 05/23Z.  SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AROUND 5-
15 KTS TIL 05/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  40  10  50
STT  79  86  79  86 /  30  30  10  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051819
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID
TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WHILE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH INDUCING A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS EL YUNQUE AREA AND
SOME MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL PROMOTE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY UNDER
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE USVI/SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
EACH NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER FROM THE
WEST...INCREASING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
IN TURN WILL FAVOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN
RANGED AND THE NORTHERN AREAS OF PR. AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH...SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
ISLANDS AND THIS IN TURN CAN KEEP TEMPS AT NORMAL LEVELS...AND
ALSO OFFSET THE TIME OF THE DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURG PRD. SCT OCNL BKN CLD LYR FL025...050. AT LEAST UNTIL 05/23Z
VCSH/PSBL ISOLD MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND
STEER NORTHWEST IN THE VCNTY OF/OR ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ...TJMZ.  SHRA
VCTY OF TISX...TIST...TNCM TIL 05/23Z.  SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AROUND 5-
15 KTS TIL 05/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  40  10  50
STT  79  86  79  86 /  30  30  10  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051459 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TAPERED OFF JUST BEFORE 9 AM AST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. ACCORDING TO THE DOPPLER
RADAR. HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THESE
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVED INLAND
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS WERE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN POOOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SKIES REMAINED
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
THE LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS FM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10 KFT BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS AND
HIGH PWAT AT 1.94 INCHES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM WIND
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PR. PREVAILING VFR CONDS
A LOCAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD OVR INTERIOR
AND NRN HALF OF PR DURG AFTN.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST BUOY
READINGS ARE INDICATING SEAS AROUND 3 FEET AND ESE WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  50  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051459 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TAPERED OFF JUST BEFORE 9 AM AST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. ACCORDING TO THE DOPPLER
RADAR. HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THESE
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVED INLAND
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS WERE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN POOOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SKIES REMAINED
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
THE LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS FM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10 KFT BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS AND
HIGH PWAT AT 1.94 INCHES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM WIND
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PR. PREVAILING VFR CONDS
A LOCAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD OVR INTERIOR
AND NRN HALF OF PR DURG AFTN.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST BUOY
READINGS ARE INDICATING SEAS AROUND 3 FEET AND ESE WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  50  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051439
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TAPERED OFF JUST BEFORE 9 AM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS LEFT BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STREAMING QUICKLY ACROSS THE USVI. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
THE LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS FM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10 KFT BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS AND
HIGH PWAT AT 1.94 INCHES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM WIND
GRIDS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST BUOY
READINGS ARE INDICATING SEAS AROUND 3 FEET AND ESE WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  50  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051439
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TAPERED OFF JUST BEFORE 9 AM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS LEFT BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STREAMING QUICKLY ACROSS THE USVI. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR AND ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
THE LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS FM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 10 KFT BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS AND
HIGH PWAT AT 1.94 INCHES. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM WIND
GRIDS.


&&


.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.


&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. LATEST BUOY
READINGS ARE INDICATING SEAS AROUND 3 FEET AND ESE WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE SEA BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  50  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  91  78 /  40  20  40  10
STT  86  79  86  79 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

05/71




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050113
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
913 PM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...
BUT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH AFTERNOON. TROFINESS STILL
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST 05/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND
TJBQ FROM 05/16-05/22Z. VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...BY LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THIS
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS TO THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BUT
WILL BUILD AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SINK INTO
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
REGION FAVORING INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INITIALLY A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING AND BECOMING EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE WEEKEND THIS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING CAP INVERSION RESULTING IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HOTTEST
DAY EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LESSER ENHANCED AND SHOULD
BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL ALSO STEER SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND PARTS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND STRONG
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY WET PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDS STILL PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING TSRA
THRU 22Z. ALSO...SOME VCSH MAY AFFECT BRIEFLY TJSJ. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ESE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  89  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
STT  78  86  78  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

72/23




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041758
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...BY LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THIS
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS TO THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BUT
WILL BUILD AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SINK INTO
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
REGION FAVORING INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INITIALLY A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING AND BECOMING EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE WEEKEND THIS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING CAP INVERSION RESULTING IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HOTTEST
DAY EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LESSER ENHANCED AND SHOULD
BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL ALSO STEER SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND PARTS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND STRONG
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY WET PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS STILL PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING TSRA
THRU 22Z. ALSO...SOME VCSH MAY AFFECT BRIEFLY TJSJ. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ESE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
STT  78  87  78  86 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041758
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...BY LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...THIS
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ERODE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS TO THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BUT
WILL BUILD AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SINK INTO
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
REGION FAVORING INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INITIALLY A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING AND BECOMING EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE WEEKEND THIS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING CAP INVERSION RESULTING IN WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HOTTEST
DAY EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LESSER ENHANCED AND SHOULD
BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
THE PRESENT WIND FLOW WILL ALSO STEER SHOWERS OVER AND AROUND PARTS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND STRONG
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY WET PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS STILL PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING TSRA
THRU 22Z. ALSO...SOME VCSH MAY AFFECT BRIEFLY TJSJ. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ESE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
STT  78  87  78  86 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH...UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
NEUTRAL OR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PR AT TIMES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING TSRA THRU
22Z. SOME VCSH/VCTS MAY AFFECT BRIEFLY TJSJ THIS AFTERNOON. ESE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A POLAR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALSO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

UNDER WEAKENING TROUGH...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEHOW DURING
THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 04/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 04/16-04/22Z. VCSH
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND
WINDS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
STT  78  87  78  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041458
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH...UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
NEUTRAL OR LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON.SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PR AT TIMES.
MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO
INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NW PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING TSRA THRU
22Z. SOME VCSH/VCTS MAY AFFECT BRIEFLY TJSJ THIS AFTERNOON. ESE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A POLAR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALSO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

UNDER WEAKENING TROUGH...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEHOW DURING
THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 04/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 04/16-04/22Z. VCSH
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND
WINDS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  40
STT  78  87  78  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/09




000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041008
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
608 AM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A POLAR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALSO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

UNDER WEAKENING TROUGH...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEHOW DURING
THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 04/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 04/16-04/22Z. VCSH
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND
WINDS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  76  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
STT  86  78  87  78 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/27




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities