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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250131 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WX WITH TEMPS STAYING
IN THE 80S. DESPITE HEIGHT FALLS...MODELS NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT SVRL DAYS AS WE STAY MOSTLY UNDER UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF JET STREAK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET STREAK TO
OUR FCST AREA ALSO IMPLIES THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ACTIVE WX...HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF 20N. BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVR THE AREA IS FCST ON SUN WHEN AREA WILL BE ON RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF US.

SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON
HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE REGION BUT ALL
INDICATE STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE OP GFS THE MOST AMPLIFIED.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 25/17-21Z SHRA OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCSH AROUND
TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFTER 25/12Z FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL START ARRIVING INTO THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  78  90 /   0   0  10  10
STT  77  85  78  85 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64







000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250131 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WX WITH TEMPS STAYING
IN THE 80S. DESPITE HEIGHT FALLS...MODELS NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT SVRL DAYS AS WE STAY MOSTLY UNDER UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF JET STREAK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET STREAK TO
OUR FCST AREA ALSO IMPLIES THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ACTIVE WX...HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF 20N. BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVR THE AREA IS FCST ON SUN WHEN AREA WILL BE ON RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF US.

SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON
HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE REGION BUT ALL
INDICATE STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE OP GFS THE MOST AMPLIFIED.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 25/17-21Z SHRA OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ...WITH POSSIBLE VCSH AROUND
TJBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFTER 25/12Z FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL START ARRIVING INTO THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  78  90 /   0   0  10  10
STT  77  85  78  85 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK TROUGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE THIRD TROUGH PASSAGE THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AND LAST UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN CANADA THAT SINKS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL CAUSE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ TO MOROVIS AND
OROCOVIS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND
OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE BEST MOISTURE BEING TODAY AND THE BEST
BEING MONDAY. NEITHER SCENARIO PROMISES MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH A FEW VIGOROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVELS WILL ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT CAPPING WILL
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO PROSPER. ALSO GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...AND
INCREASES...AND THE JET IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA PROMOTING THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH...EVEN IF NO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS OF 5
TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /  10  20  10  10
STT  78  85  78  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK TROUGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE THIRD TROUGH PASSAGE THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AND LAST UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN CANADA THAT SINKS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL CAUSE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ TO MOROVIS AND
OROCOVIS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND
OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE BEST MOISTURE BEING TODAY AND THE BEST
BEING MONDAY. NEITHER SCENARIO PROMISES MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH A FEW VIGOROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVELS WILL ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT CAPPING WILL
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO PROSPER. ALSO GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...AND
INCREASES...AND THE JET IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA PROMOTING THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH...EVEN IF NO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS OF 5
TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /  10  20  10  10
STT  78  85  78  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK TROUGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE THIRD TROUGH PASSAGE THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AND LAST UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN CANADA THAT SINKS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL CAUSE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ TO MOROVIS AND
OROCOVIS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND
OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE BEST MOISTURE BEING TODAY AND THE BEST
BEING MONDAY. NEITHER SCENARIO PROMISES MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH A FEW VIGOROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVELS WILL ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT CAPPING WILL
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO PROSPER. ALSO GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...AND
INCREASES...AND THE JET IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA PROMOTING THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH...EVEN IF NO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS OF 5
TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /  10  20  10  10
STT  78  85  78  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO WEAK TROUGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE THIRD TROUGH PASSAGE THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. MODEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY AND LAST UNTIL
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PASSING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM
EASTERN CANADA THAT SINKS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
PROGRESSION WILL CAUSE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM HORMIGUEROS AND MAYAGUEZ TO MOROVIS AND
OROCOVIS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND
OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE BEST MOISTURE BEING TODAY AND THE BEST
BEING MONDAY. NEITHER SCENARIO PROMISES MUCH WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL ALTHOUGH A FEW VIGOROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVELS WILL ADD SOME ENHANCEMENT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...BUT CAPPING WILL
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FIND IT
DIFFICULT TO PROSPER. ALSO GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...AND
INCREASES...AND THE JET IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA PROMOTING THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH...EVEN IF NO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY PLACID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. A NORTHERLY
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS OF 5
TO 6 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  90 /  10  20  10  10
STT  78  85  78  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241503
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONTINUED
ACROSS THE REGION. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241503
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONTINUED
ACROSS THE REGION. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING A LITTLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

72/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AS A
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY
AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 24/11Z...ESE
WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH
POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND CIGS AT AROUND FL030-040
ACROSS WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240106 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS INDUCING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HOT WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD/SCT
DIURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED OVR INLAND SECTIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
TROFS DEEPEN OVR THE CNTRL ATLC AND ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT HOW FAST AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPS OVR THE
REGION BUT ALL INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING. AS WE ENTER THE
MONTH OF MAY WHICH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE
YEAR THINGS LOOK AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 24/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT LESS THAN 12 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 4 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS AT A MINIMUM NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING SOME THU NIGHT. MODERATE NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR THU IS 95F AND THIS WILL NOT BE BROKEN
AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
STT  79  85  78  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/64









000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH PULLING THE SUB TROPICAL
JET SOUTH AND INTO THE A FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BROAD TROUGH FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF MAINE WILL ROTATE AROUND ANOTHER ALREADY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND CLOSE THE SADDLE IN THE
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
REPEAT THE CYCLE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM ANASCO TO COROZAL. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED WELL
DOWN STREAM FROM SAINT CROIX TO THE WESTERN END OF SAINT THOMAS IN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ABATE EARLY AS GFS MODEL SHOWS
A MOISTURE MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER AND
LOWER FEATURES PLAY OUT OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
FOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS THAT
KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOR ORGANIZED LOCAL
CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES
EXHIBIT ONE POP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 23/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY...BUT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN USUAL WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
STT  77  85  78  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231909
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH PULLING THE SUB TROPICAL
JET SOUTH AND INTO THE A FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BROAD TROUGH FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF MAINE WILL ROTATE AROUND ANOTHER ALREADY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND CLOSE THE SADDLE IN THE
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
REPEAT THE CYCLE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED AFTER NOON ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM ANASCO TO COROZAL. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED WELL
DOWN STREAM FROM SAINT CROIX TO THE WESTERN END OF SAINT THOMAS IN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL ABATE EARLY AS GFS MODEL SHOWS
A MOISTURE MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER AND
LOWER FEATURES PLAY OUT OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
FOREMENTIONED JET STREAM AND THE SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS THAT
KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NOR ORGANIZED LOCAL
CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES
EXHIBIT ONE POP AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER THEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPCT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHRA AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 23/21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY...BUT SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET AT ANY TIME
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MARINE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN USUAL WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
STT  77  85  78  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231459
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES...AS TEMPS IN THE SAN JUAN METRO ALREADY
OVER 90 DEGREES. FAIR STABLE WEATHER ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

15/12





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230909 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23






000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230909 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230845
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS OR SO...AS A ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...CREATING AND MAINTAINING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. HOWEVER...DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...BETTER LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IS ANTICIPATED...
RESULTING IN SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

GFS AND WRF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER....LOOK FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING ESE AFTER 23/13Z AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT THRU FRI. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-6 FT IN EAST GENERATED
WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS ONLY 92F AND TEMPS LIKELY TO
CLIMB AGAIN IN THE MID 90S UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
STT  85  77  85  78 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23





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